This year's races for Senate, Congress and New Hampshire governor may be getting the bulk of the attention. But down-ballot contests for the New Hampshire House, state Senate and Executive Council may affect voters’ daily lives more — on issues from local taxes, public education, and state spending.
Forecasting the outcome of those races, however, is difficult — in large part because votes for State House seats are often heavily influenced by the outcomes of races at the top of the ticket.
New Hampshire is one of 24 states electing both a governor and a senator Tuesday, but the state is unique in having clear frontrunning candidates in each of those races who are from different parties.
“Nobody else in the country is like this. I cannot overstate that: nobody,” said Steve Marchand, a Democratic strategist from Portsmouth. “That makes it hard to model with high confidence what will happen down ballot.”
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But ticket splitting isn’t the only factor that could shape down ballot outcomes Tuesday. Other factors include the cratering popularity of President Trump — whose approval ratings have never been lower here — the spiking cost of gas and heating oil, and a ballot question that asks voters if they want to cap the growth of local property taxes to fund schools.
Republicans acknowledge Trump and high fuel prices as challenges, but they view the tax cap question as a tool to motivate voters in a tough political environment.
“In a midterm election, people have to get off the couch,” said Rep. Ross Berry, who helps lead the Committee to Elect House Republicans. “I see this as: Can the Republican apparatus, which has never been this well-organized and hard-charging, plus a tax cap, overcome tough national headwinds?”
Republicans have been in the majority in Concord since 2021. They now have a 41 seat edge (211-170) in the New Hampshire House, and a 14-10 margin in the state Senate. They also hold four of the five seats on the Executive Council. Republican-drawn districts in the State House give the GOP what amounts to a home-field advantage in non-statewide races. In high turnout years, Democrats sometimes overcome that structural edge, but the current maps certainly help Republicans, particularly in the state Senate.
“The House and the Senate are extremely gerrymandered bodies,” said Democratic strategist Karen Hicks. “So outcomes don’t really reflect the energy that’s out there among the electorate. But that said, I think we will be successful.”
Hicks added that Democrats should be in position to gain seats in the House and “pick up a couple of Senate seats,” but she sees a volatility in the electorate — here and nationally — that could produce unexpected results.
“We are in a moment where things are getting shaken up, where it’s not the same level of predictable behavior by demographic group by socio-economic status, and by partisan label,” Hicks said, “None of these things are locked.”
House control at stake
Partisan control of the New Hampshire House will be decided Tuesday, and with House Speaker Sherman Packard’s decision not to seek another term, the House — regardless of which party ends up in the majority — will have a new leader.
House Majority Leader Jason Osborne is the leading Republican candidate for House speaker. Osborne has led the House GOP caucus since 2020, and on his watch Republicans have passed bills to cut taxes, expand school choice, prioritize parents' rights and expand gun rights. Osborne, who moved to New Hampshire in 2010 as part of the Free State Project, is both a lightning rod in Concord and a deft hand when it comes to enforcing discipline in his caucus.
Other Republicans seeking the House’s top job include Deputy Speaker Steve Smith and Speaker Pro-tem Jim Kofalt.
House Democratic Leader Alexis Simpson is expected to win the gavel should Democrats claim a House majority.
Executive Council
Republicans hold a 4-1 advantage on the Executive Council, and due to district maps that favor Republicans, it would take a significant wave election for Democrats to flip partisan control.
If Democrats have a big night, the seat most expect to flip would be District 5 seat now held by Republican David Wheeler of Milford. Wheeler has served eight non-consecutive council terms. A staunch conservative, Wheeler has also served in the House and Senate.
He faces Melanie Levesque of Brookline. Wheeler beat Levesque, also a former state senator, when Levesque last challenged him in 2024.
State Senate
Republicans currently hold a 14-10 edge in the state Senate. And the political maps in place there provide fortification for most incumbents regardless of the political atmosphere. But several of these seats are seen as flippable if Tuesday ends up being a good night for Democrats.
District 11, a seat now held by Republican Sen. Tim McGough, is one both parties acknowledge stands a real chance of changing hands. The Democrat in the race, Shannon Chandley, has held the seat before, and McGough, the Republican, was stripped of his committee posts by Senate President Sharon Carson due to his alleged poor treatment of State House employees.
Other GOP-held districts that could be in play if Democrats win big Tuesday include District 18, which includes five Manchester wards and the town of Litchfield. Republican Sen. Victoria Sullivan faces Democrat Leonard Bell, a career advisor at Southern New Hampshire University and U.S. Navy veteran.
The race for the District 9 seat held by Republican Sen. Denise Ricciardi of Bedford is another one that Democrats see as a potential pickup. Ricciardi faces retired pilot Matt McLaughlin in a rematch of the 2024 election that Ricciardi won by about 1,000 votes.
Other races that could bear watching Tuesday include District 3, where GOP Sen. Mark McConkey of Freedom faces Wolfeboro Democratic State Rep. Bobbi Boudman.
District 7, which pits Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Innis against newcomer Rebecca Harned, is also seen as potentially competitive. But in an appearance on WFAE radio this week, Innis said he likes his chances and those of his colleagues Tuesday, regardless of the cost-of-living issues that are expected to shape outcomes nationwide Tuesday.
“Trump made a mistake when he ran for office: He said I'm going to lower prices. It’s really hard to bring prices down,” said Innis, who’s also a professor at UNH’s business school. “He should have run on a stabilization message.”
