State tourism officials are predicting fewer summer visitors this year: 4.6 million tourists, down from roughly 4.8 million last year. The forecast drop is driven in part by Canadians who are boycotting American travel because of rising tensions from President Trump's handling of bilateral relations.
For now, the state is not planning any new approaches to woo back displeased Canadians. Business and Economic Affairs Commissioner Taylor Caswell said the state is launching a $3.6 million summer ad buy that will include spots highlighting New Hampshire’s outdoors, airing around the Northeast U.S. and the Montreal region.
“We are not really changing our strategy, as it relates to Canada,” Caswell said at a press conference Thursday. “I mean, people are going to make decisions on whatever they are going to do. We have not left that market, we have no intentions to leave that market.”
Canadian tourism typically accounts for about 5% of overall visitors to the state. But that number is already falling this year. In April, Canadian visitors to New Hampshire dropped about 40 percent compared to the same month last year, according to statistics from the Canadian government.
Chris Proulx, director of the Mount Washington Valley Chamber of Commerce, said he’s heard from North Country businesses who’ve seen a hit to their bottom lines — including cancellations for lodging, bike tours and kayak rentals from Canadian customers. As Memorial Day weekend kicks off the summer tourism season, he said the chamber is taking another look at its outreach efforts to the north.
“We are definitely monitoring that and evaluating our advocacy programs right now and what we need to do to make sure that Canadians know that they are welcome here,” Proulx said.
He added any dip in tourists is especially felt during “shoulder season,” the time between peak and off-peak seasons, when local businesses rely on spontaneous visitors. But he’s hoping the cross-border mood improves in the coming months.
“We may see just a down summer in terms of Canadian tourism, but maybe after a while, if things are quiet on the political front, maybe they'll say, ‘You know what? Yes, let's go back and visit our friends and visit the places that we love,’ ” he said.
Meanwhile, the state's top revenue official says she expects any drop in tourist visits from Canada to affect state tax collections — and economic activity in the North Country in particular.
Commissioner Lindsay Stepp told a House committee earlier this week that she anticipates a measurable drop in tax revenue derived from Canadian spending, which typically accounts for about 5% of overall collections on New Hampshire's rooms and meals tax.
“So maybe not a significant portion of our revenue but I think it will be significant for some localities — particularly in the northern part of the state,” Stepp said.
While the state relies on taxes collected on meals and room rentals, local communities and businesses benefit from tourist purchases of gas, gifts, bike rentals, and so on.
Stepp told lawmakers that she's now expecting flat collections on rooms and meals tax in the coming fiscal year. Earlier this year, when the House crafted its budget proposal, she was projecting rooms and meals collection to grow by 2 percent next year.
