The competitive races for president and governor may be getting the bulk of voters' attention in New Hampshire right now. But down ballot races — for seats on the Executive Council, in the state Senate and in the New Hampshire House — could be even more pivotal in determining the state’s immediate political direction and defining what’s politically possible for the state’s next governor.
National money is flowing into New Hampshire races that could decide which party ends up in partisan control in Concord. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, a national group that focuses on State House races, is spending $1 million in hopes that Democrats here can regain control in the House, something they haven’t had since 2018. The same group is also targeting certain state Senate seats.
“New Hampshire is one of the best opportunities for Democrats this year,” Heather Williams, the group’s president, told reporters in a conference call this week.
The group’s GOP analog, the Republic State Legislative Committee, isn’t as focused on New Hampshire, but is targeting at least two sitting Democratic state senators: Minority Leader Donna Soucy of Manchester, and District 11 Democrat Shannon Chandley. The GOP group is buying education-themed ads attacking both as “textbook politicians.”
New Hampshire Republican leaders say 2024 may be a year when they end up being financially outgunned in down ballot races, but they remain confident that their candidates have the resources to make their case on the core issues — like taxes and public safety — they believe can propel them to fresh majorities.
“We are doing pretty well in this state,” New Hampshire GOP Chairman Chris Ager said. "And we are the only Republican-controlled statehouse north of North Carolina on the East Coast.”
Control of NH House up for grabs
In 2020, Republicans won the narrowest of majorities in the 400-seat New Hampshire House: A difference of just three seats. Democrats have made that slim loss a kind of mantra as they campaign, and see team campaigning as the best way to avoid a repeat in 2024.
“There is just incredible synergy this year between Democrats running up and down the ballot,” Democratic House Leader Matt Wilhelm emphasized during a recent rally in Hollis where candidates running for offices from state rep to Congress were joined by U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
While Democrats have prioritized flexing their unity at public events. Republicans have taken a more targeted approach, including stepped up digital ads on social media.
Longtime conservative organizer Greg Moore, who directs the New Hampshire chapter of Americans For Prosperity, says when it comes to House elections, a ground game helps. But particularly in presidential election years, results tend to align with the overall partisan electoral trend.
“The generic ballot gives you the real vibe when it comes to the House,” said Moore.
A recent poll from St. Anselm College gives Democrats a 49-47 edge over Republicans on a generic ballot question.
Targeted seats in state Senate
Republicans currently hold a 14-10 edge in the state Senate. Due to years of gerrymandering of district lines in that chamber, the Senate has remained in GOP hands in recent even after elections when Democratic candidates collected more overall votes.
This year, both parties say they have opportunities to flip seats in that chamber. Democrats’ best chance, at least on paper, may be in District 9, which stretches from Bedford, in the Manchester suburbs, to Hinsdale along the Vermont border. Sen. Denise Ricciardi has held the seat for four years, but is facing retired Navy pilot Matt McLaughlin, a Bedford native who has a long record of local volunteer and youth coaching.
Democrats see another possible pick up in District 7, a seat now held by Bradford Republican Sen. Dan Innis, who teaches marketing at UNH. Their candidate, Stu Green, is a former Navy commander and intelligence officer who lives in Andover.
Republicans, meanwhile, see their best pick up option in District 11, where Amherst Democratic Sen. Shannon Chandley, who has narrowly won and lost her seat during the last two elections, faces Merrimack Rep. Tim McGough, a conservative with a background in health care.
GOP hold majority on Executive Council
Republicans hold a 4-1 majority on the Executive Council, which has sway over state contracts and appointments to major state offices and judicial jobs. Changing the current GOP majority on that body could take some doing.
Democrat Karen Liot Hill, a former Lebanon mayor and Grafton County treasurer, is expected to claim the heavily Democratic District 2 seat now held by outgoing Democratic Councilor Cinde Warmington of Concord, who declined to seek reelection to run for governor. Hill faces Plymouth Republican Kim Strathdee, a bookkeeper who also ran for this seat in the past three elections.
In the other open race, for the District 4 seat left vacant by the retirement of Ted Gatsas, Republican John Stephen, a former state health commissioner, is expected to to defeat Manchester School Board Member Jim O’Connell.
Some Democrats see District 1 incumbent Joe Kenney of Wakefield as vulnerable to the challenge of Democrat Emmett Soldati, a Somersworth businessman. But Kenney, who is in his fifth term, has proved to be durable in the sprawling district that stretches from the Canadian border down the eastern half of the state to Durham.
Democrats see another pickup chance in District 3, where former Brentwood state Sen. Jon Morgan faces Rye Republican Councilor Janet Stevens, the incumbent. Republicans are skeptical, and Morgan, who served a single term in the Senate, faces an uphill fight in a district that tilts heavily Republican.
The District 5 race pits Milford Republican Councilor David Wheeler, who is seeking his eighth term, against Brookline Democrat Melanie Levesque, a former state senator. Levesque won her primary comfortably, but beating Wheeler in this district — which was made more GOP-friendly during the last round of redistricting — could be difficult.
