A new University of New Hampshire poll finds some movement in races for U.S. Senate and governor but the overall dynamic remains unchanged.
U.S. Senate race
In the state’s high-profile race for Senate, the poll has Congressman Chris Pappas holding a substantial but shrinking edge over scientist Karishma Manzur in the Democratic primary. Just over half of likely Democratic primary voters polled — 53% — said they would back Pappas if the primary were held today, while 29% percent would support Manzur.
Pappas’s 24-point advantage is down from the 43-point edge he held over Manzur in an April UNH poll. The latest numbers show Pappas running strongest among voters over the age of 50 and self-identified moderates and liberals. But people under 35 and voters who identify as progressive or socialist are more likely to support Manzur.
In the Republican primary, John E. Sununu continues to hold a significant lead, with 59% of likely GOP primary voters saying they would cast a ballot for him, while 20% say they would vote for Scott Brown. Both men previously served in the U.S. Senate: Brown representing Massachusetts, and Sununu representing New Hampshire.
Sununu’s backing is strong across the board, including winning the support of most voters who identify as libertarian and conservative. Brown’s support is highest among voters over 50 and among residents of the Seacoast.
The poll found that in a general election matchup, 47% would cast a ballot for Pappas, and 44% would vote for Sununu. A UNH poll taken in April found the same result.
Governor's race
In the race for New Hampshire governor, the UNH poll shows Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte is maintaining a small lead over Democrat Cinde Warmington: 44% of those polled said they would vote for Ayotte, while 39% would choose Warmington.
The poll found 47% approve of Ayotte’s job performance and 45% disapprove. The governor’s overall favorability was lower: 38% said they have a favorable opinion of Ayotte, while 42% reported an unfavorable opinion.
The poll found Warmington, who also ran for governor two years ago, remains little known to most voters: 43% said they didn't know enough about Warmington to have an opinion. Just over a quarter of those polled — 27% — said they viewed her negatively, while 13% said they see her favorably.
On the direction of the state
The poll also asked whether the state was headed in the right direction or was on the wrong track. Slightly less than half — 45% — said the state is heading in the right direction, while 40% said the state is on the wrong track and 15% said they were unsure.
The “right track” question hewed closely to party affiliation, with 79% of Republicans saying the state is heading in the right direction, while only 12% of Democrats agreed.
The poll, which asked participants to fill out an online survey, included 2,396 respondents, and included a 2% margin of error. It was taken between June 18 and June 23.
