Polling shows the presidential election at a near dead heat. In New Hampshire, that jump ball scenario also applies to the governor’s race, which means the outcomes in both contests could hinge on voters who choose to go with one party for president, and the other for governor.
But finding ticket-splitters — or at least ones willing to talk about it — is easier said than done these days, even in places where on paper they’d presumably be plentiful: Say, a supermarket parking lot in Bedford.
For years, that town was a Republican stronghold, though lately it’s become more of a political battleground.
But after spending several hours chatting up voters there recently, what was most evident were voters quick to indicate that contemporary politics is driving them towards almost purely partisan choices.
Asked about his ballot plans next week, retired lawyer Andrew Dunn offered a blunt summation: “I hate Trump.”
An undeclared voter who describes his politics as socially liberal and fiscally conservative, Dunn said he routinely cast ballots for members of both parties in past elections. But this year, he says he’s voting Democrat all the way.
“Straight down the line: on abortion, helping Ukraine, making sure we have enough immigrants coming in to keep our economy functioning,” Dunn said. “Just the basics.”
On the other side of the parking lot, James Roche, a former Marine, was loading groceries into his pickup truck.
“I’m going to vote for Trump,” he said. His motivation? “The border and the economy, and I’m not a big fan of Kamala Harris.”
Roche is also planning to vote straight-ticket.
“Yup, the whole way down,” he said.
The straight-ticket intentions of voters like Dunn and Roche are pretty common these days.
But ticket splitting has played a major role in recent New Hampshire politics.
It’s how Republican Gov. Chris Sununu rolled to easy wins in most of his bids for governor, even as New Hampshire voters backed Democrats in federal races. And while most campaigns are closing this year’s election by trying to motivate core supporters, there are efforts afoot to motivate ticket splitters.
“I feel good about what I’m doing; I think it is the right thing that needs to be done,” Clara Monier said at a recent event for Congressman Chris Pappas in Manchester.
The 83-year-old Monier has been politically active in New Hampshire since she supported John F. Kennedy as a college student, before becoming a Republican. Monier has never backed Trump, and thinks her own party has moved too far to the right while Democrats have become too liberal. In addition to supporting Pappas, a Democrat, Monier is working to build GOP support for Vice President Kamala Harris. But she’s also backing Republican Kelly Ayotte for governor.
Monier sees going public with her ticket-splitting — and encouraging others to do the same — as critical to reforming a political system plagued by partisan gridlock.
“I think if we are a civilized country, and a real government where things are accomplished, it becomes more important,” Monier said.
But for many voters, the inclination to vote split ticket is less about principle than it is about following their gut. That includes David Still, an engineer from Concord who plans to vote Democrat in the presidential race but Republican for governor.
“Kelly Ayotte is someone who I feel is very trustworthy and has a good track record on what she’s done in New Hampshire in the past,” Still said.
Still says the economy is a big issue for him, as is preserving abortion rights. Both are topics Ayotte and her Democrat rival, Joyce Craig, have worked to weaponize in this race, through a barrage of TV and digital ads and direct mail pieces.
“I get all the fliers you probably do,” Still said.
But even so, Still says he doesn’t buy the doomsday scenarios that both campaigns are looking to spin on these issues. He says he takes Ayotte at her word that she won’t seek to change New Hampshire’s current abortion law, and he believes Craig when she says she’s not bent on making sweeping changes to state tax policy. The upshot, Still says, is that he feels little anxiety about this race’s outcome, no matter who he supports.
“I do kind of feel that, regardless of how that goes, we should be in good hands,” he said. “I’m not overly worried that we are just going to end up with a terrible person in that job.”
A rare political sentiment in 2024.
