Election results were not yet final last Wednesday when city leaders in Manchester gathered for a ribbon cutting at a new 250-unit housing project downtown.
“The development we see represents positive momentum in our city: A blend of progress, opportunity and forward thinking investment,” said Manchester Economic Development Director Jodie Nazaka.
Nazaka was praising the new apartments, but her assessment could also apply to what Republicans pulled off in Manchester the night before, on Election Day. In the governor’s race, Republican Kelly Ayotte topped former Mayor Joyce Craig by 4 points in Craig’s home city. Further down the ballot, Republicans ousted Manchester Sen. Donna Soucy, the senate’s ranking Democrat, and picked up four new seats in the city's New Hampshire House delegation.
The results in the Queen City last week reflect a broader rightward shift among the electorate across the state in 2024. But in Manchester, the swing to the right was just the latest in a series of political gains for the GOP over the past year, including the election of a Republican mayor in 2023 and Republican control of the city’s board of aldermen for the first time in decades.
Record turnout was a factor in this election statewide — and in Manchester, right-leaning voters were clearly motivated.
“I’ve never seen anything like it, and I've been following politics for a long time,” former Mayor Bob Baines said. “I'm 78-years old. I've never seen that amount of people lined up to vote.”
Baines, a Democrat who sits on Manchester’s school board, lost his last run for mayor in 2005, in an election that hinged on public safety concerns. He believes issues tied to homelessness stretching back several years drove outcomes in Manchester last week.
“Especially during COVID, you saw these encampments. You saw them on Canal Street, you saw them around the courthouse, you saw people on Elm Street in front of the restaurants, and it created a negative vibe and voters wanted politicians to do more about it,” Baines said.
Republican State Sen. Keith Murphy agrees that Manchester’s struggles with homelessness and drugs over the past few years helped Republicans at the ballot box. But he also sees larger dynamics benefiting his party in the city.
“Republicans used to be the party of Wall Street, and Democrats were the party of big government,” Murphy said. “I think a lot of people see it as: Democrats are now the party of Wall Street and big government, and Republicans become the party of the working class, and I think that’s a lot of people in Manchester.”
Last week’s gains came one year after voters elected Republican Jay Ruais mayor. While Manchester has seen Republicans in city hall in the past, the results of the past year amount to a recent high water mark for the party. Local GOP leaders say they worked to build on that — and reach voters — with a basic message.
“The concerns were housing and money," said Brian Cote, chairman of the Manchester Republican Committee. "Groceries are expensive. People are having to make decisions on whether to pay their rent or feed their kids. It’s not a good situation.”
German Ortiz, a Manchester-based realtor, says he’s heard similar concerns from many of his clients who say they see their paychecks stretched further and further — and that the ouster of incumbent Democrats reflects that.
“When people feel it in their pocket or wallet, they react,” he said in Spanish. “This is natural.”
While a variety of factors — from pocketbook issues, to shifting partisan identities — shaped outcomes last week, it will now fall on those elected to make progress. Shortly after Ayotte declared victory over Craig last week, Chris Ager, chairman of the New Hampshire GOP, acknowledged that much. He added that he’s seen Manchester as central to his party’s fortunes in this state for some time.
“This was a two-year plan, to win the mayor of Manchester, to propel us to win the governorship. And so we were able to achieve that. Now we have to perform — continue to perform," Ager said.
How that performance goes could determine if the GOP’s gains in the city are lasting or temporary.
NHPR reporters Todd Bookman and Lau Guzmán contributed to this story.
