New Hampshire has expanded its school voucher-style program to all New Hampshire families, regardless of their income. Enrollment is impossible to predict because while lawmakers capped its Education Freedom Account program at 10,000 students, that cap could be overridden under a caveat in the law.
Related: Interested in NH's expanded school vouchers? Here's what you need to know
That’s not discouraged interest groups from estimating what enrollment will look like or what the expansion will mean for state and local budgets. Here’s what they’re saying.
Experts disagree on enrollment predictions
Drew Cline, president of the Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy, chairman of the New Hampshire State Board of Education, and a vocal EFA supporter, estimates the law change will bring about 4,800 new students into the EFA program. He based that on studies of EFA enrollment in other states with similar laws; income data from the Census; and an analysis of New Hampshire’s EFA enrollment so far.
Cline said there are about 7,745 private and homeschool students who are newly eligible for an EFA due to the elimination of an income cap. He estimates about 32 percent of them will apply for an EFA because that’s the percentage who applied under the old income limits.
If Cline is right, that would equate to 2,500 new applications from private and homeschool students. Using the same logic, Cline estimates that about 2,300 – or 2.2 percent of the state’s newly eligible public school students – will apply because that matches the “take up” rate seen so far.
Together, that’s 4,800 new applications from students who were not eligible under the old rules.
Reaching Higher NH, a public education policy nonprofit that opposes EFAs, has taken a different approach that looks only at student populations, not enrollment history in New Hampshire or other states with similar programs.
Reaching Higher NH looks only at the private and homeschool population, which it estimates to be higher than Cline does, and considers the possibility that all 20,125 of those students can now apply for an EFA. But again, not all of them would be eligible in the first year, given the enrollment cap in place.
Experts also disagree over new costs.
The EFA program gave all students about $4,200 a year to cover education expenses. Students receive additional money if they have disabilities, qualify for free- or reduced-price lunch, or are English learners.
The state spent about $27.7 million this school year on EFAs.
Reaching Higher NH estimates that cost could climb to about $100 million a year if all private and homeschool students apply, according to its one-page analysis. It did not factor in students who leave public school for the program or students who attend private school in the state but live elsewhere and, therefore, would not qualify.
Cline took a very different approach in his 22-page analysis and concluded state and local spending on education could drop. His argument is popular with EFA proponents and rejected by opponents.
Cline estimates include only the expansion of the program, meaning they consider the number of newly qualifying students, not students who were eligible under the income cap. He estimates those new enrollees will add about $21 million in state EFA costs a year, bringing the total to almost $50 million.
But Cline argues the $21 million increase would be offset by about $16 million a year in savings in adequate education grants the state sends school districts for each of its students. The state would cut its cost by about $7,200 for each student that leaves public school for the program.
Some of that savings would be eaten up by EFA awards, which Cline estimates will average about $5,000 per student.
If Cline’s enrollment estimates for new public school students is accurate, that’s $16 million annual savings to the state. Based on that savings, Cline estimates the state’s net cost of expanding the program will be $5 million a year.
That would put the state’s net cost for the EFA expansion at $5 million a year, Cline said. He also considered the financial impact to local school budgets.
Under Cline’s analysis, if 2,300 students left public schools to get EFAs next year, districts would lose that $16 million a year in state funding.
But Cline said school districts could also save money – $38.8 million a year – if they no longer had to educate those students. That savings is based on all the other education costs paid for locally.
Under that scenario, that would save local taxpayers $22.7 million a year, Cline said.
Cline acknowledged that’s a “mathematical savings,” meaning schools would see those savings only if they chose to cut a corresponding amount of spending for each student who left.
Public school advocates disagree. They say removing one student from a classroom does not allow a school to spend less on heat, electricity, or transportation. Even losing a handful of students doesn’t mean the school can reduce its teaching staff, especially if those students are spread across grades.
Lawmakers also considered that savings to school districts were unknowable.
“As students potentially leave traditional district schools and join the EFA program, districts may feel pressure to reduce their local expenditures to better fit the reduced population served,” said the fiscal impact note attached the EFA expansion legislation. “It is unknown the impact this would have on local expenditures, but this could potentially result in an indeterminable decrease.”
