STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Iran's new supreme leader has the same last name as the old one. He is the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. So Iran has had three leaders in its revolutionary period - Ayatollah Khomeini, the revolutionary founder from 1979, and then Khamenei, who was killed by an airstrike in the U.S. and Israeli assault, and now Mojtaba Khamenei. We'll discuss the new leadership with Vali Nasr, who studies Iranian politics at Johns Hopkins University. Vali, welcome back.
VALI NASR: Thank you.
INSKEEP: OK. So as a layman, the message I get from this choice is essentially Iranian defiance. They don't seem to want to change course. They've chosen somebody from the same family. But how do you read it?
NASR: No, that's exactly it. It's not only choosing somebody from the same family. It's actually somebody who is very close to the policies of the leader that was killed, his father. He's - also has very tight relationship with the Revolutionary Guards, which are at the forefront of this war. And he was chosen also because he symbolizes quote-unquote the martyrdom of his father and the suffering that Iran is going through, and also as a leader that is ready to step in and immediately to take over the job because he's been in the thick of things for the past three decades.
INSKEEP: Do you believe that he will be giving the orders?
NASR: Yes, he will be giving the orders. That does not mean that the strategy for war will change. But he - among all the other candidates, he was the one most ready to step in right away and take the helm.
INSKEEP: So you just mentioned Iran's strategy. We are trying to figure out the American strategy. President Trump has given various signals as to whether they've reached the stopping point or they want to go further. But the president seems to think the U.S. can go as long as it wants, as far as it wants and then stop and finish. How do the Iranians see the strategy?
NASR: Exactly the same. I mean, they have planned for a long war, a war that would be fought on the turf that they want - in other words, on oil markets in the Gulf - rather than on the turf that Israel and the United States want, with missiles and bombing from the air. And also, they're prepared to stay in this until U.S. is exhausted. And that's what they're calculating on.
INSKEEP: Talk that through for me. Are you saying the Iranians might persuade themselves that, for all the damage they have suffered, they are gaining an advantage here because oil prices have soared in recent days?
NASR: I think they were prepared for this damage. They never - they didn't underestimate U.S. and Israel's capability to inflict pain on Iran. They experienced that also during the last June war. But I think they - their estimation is that the longer they keep up their attacks, that U.S. and Israel will run out of interceptors, and so will the Gulf countries. They will not be able to protect their bases. And also, the longer this war goes on, the more damage it will do to the global economy, not just energy markets but much more broadly. And this is not something that President Trump had calculated on. And therefore, Iran has already had an element of surprise in this war, which has changed the calculation in Washington. And so they see that as a win.
INSKEEP: Can you talk that through for me? Because how could it possibly be a surprise that a war in the Persian Gulf would lead to higher oil prices?
NASR: Well, I think because the president calculated that this war would be very quick - that they would kill the supreme leader, somehow Iran would present a new face that is ready to talk to him, something like a Venezuela or a Syria scenario, and that Iran would very quickly buckle. Just as it - that was the conclusion he made in June, that they destroyed Iran's nuclear program and he got - the U.S. and Israel got a very huge advantage. I don't think the United States was prepared for a long war. It definitely was not prepared to defend its bases or the Gulf countries. It was only prepared to defend Israel in the case of Iranian attacks. And now both Israel and the United States are facing a situation where they may run out of interceptors, and also that the Gulf countries will.
INSKEEP: Just a few seconds left, but do you see any signs of cracks in popular support for this unpopular Iranian government - people rising up?
NASR: Actually, the opposite. I'm seeing a rallying to the flag. That does not mean love of the regime. But you could see crowds in the street, that Iranians are appalled at the war. They're worried about their future. And at this moment, it is not politics against the regime that is driving them, but rather defense of the country.
INSKEEP: Vali Nasr studies Iranian politics at Johns Hopkins in the School of Advanced International Studies. Thanks so much.
NASR: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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