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President Trump says, after U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran's nuclear program, now it is time for peace. Analysts say there's a possibility Iran moved its uranium stockpiles before the U.S. sent in bunker busting bombs. And dealing with all of that requires diplomacy at a time when few have trust in talks, as NPR's Michele Kelemen reports.
MICHELE KELEMEN, BYLINE: President Trump calls his military strike magnificent and says the last thing on Iran's mind now is its nuclear program.
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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: They're not going to have enrichment, and they're not going to have a nuclear weapon, and they know that. They're going to get on to being a great trading nation. You know, they're very good traders.
KELEMEN: Iran has been signaling that it wants to contain tensions, giving Qatar a heads up before striking a U.S. base there on Tuesday. But Suzanne DiMaggio of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace says this uneasy truce is not sustainable.
SUZANNE DIMAGGIO: Telegraphing strikes in the hopes of preventing an escalatory spiral is dangerous, magical thinking. There's no way out of this without a diplomatic initiative.
KELEMEN: DiMaggio has been involved in what's called Track II Diplomacy - unofficial dealings with Iran and other countries to promote negotiations. While President Trump says U.S. strikes destroyed Iran's nuclear program, she says there are indications that Iran moved parts of it.
DIMAGGIO: We don't know exactly where Iran's nuclear material is or where their advanced centrifuges are. They've apparently been moved. So this does give Iran some leverage at the negotiating table that it didn't have prior to the U.S. strikes.
KELEMEN: Some Israeli lawmakers are sounding the alarm about that. Knesset member Avigdor Lieberman, an Iran hard-liner, posted on social media that there is nothing more dangerous than leaving a wounded lion. That's how he referred to Iran. And he said instead of an unconditional surrender, as Trump initially demanded, the world has entered into, quote, "difficult and tedious negotiations" with the ayatollah. At one point this week, Trump seemed to be embracing Israel's hopes for regime change in Iran, though he's now backing away from that. Nuclear nonproliferation expert Kelsey Davenport says regime change may not resolve the problem.
KELSEY DAVENPORT: In a case of regime change, if Iran is weakened, if it feels that it's facing external threats, a new government might be more likely to make the decision to develop nuclear weapons in order to deter, you know, future attacks or territorial aggression.
KELEMEN: Davenport is with the Arms Control Association and supports nuclear diplomacy. So does Sara Haghdoosti, who runs a group called Win Without War. She points out that Trump withdrew from President Obama's nuclear deal in the first term, and this time around, he used the prospect of diplomacy to divert attention away from the B-2 bombers headed to Iran. She says that damages U.S. credibility.
SARA HAGHDOOSTI: The key reason that people come to tables is to avoid war. And if that is not something that the United States can guarantee, it fundamentally undermines our position in the world.
KELEMEN: The Gulf States seem to be trying to step into this breach. It was Qatar that helped Trump arrange a shaky truce. Davenport of the Arms Control Association says countries in the region have an interest in keeping things calm. And the nuclear landscape there is changing, too.
DAVENPORT: Saudi Arabia has plans to advance a civil nuclear program. The United Arab Emirates already has an established program. There are opportunities for collaborative nuclear activities that would add transparency into Iran's program, reduce proliferation risk.
KELEMEN: But that requires tricky diplomacy at a time when there's little trust by all sides.
Michele Kelemen, NPR News, the State Department. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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