A popular belief about new housing and education spending may be just a myth.
New Hampshire Public Radio's Dan Gorenstein has more.
Across the state, propose a new housing unit and a developer is bound to meet opposition.
They argument goes new units mean more kids.
And more kids means higher school costs.
And higher school costs means higher tax bills.
But it's precisely that thinking that economist Russ Thibeault wants to put out to pasture.
26:23 that misconception leads to some distortions in policy, in the policy that local communities take. It's very easy in most NH communities to get an age restricted development approved. And it's very difficult to get an affordable housing project approved.
Thibeault argues that old myth is the cause for the state's workforce housing shortage today.
His study was sponsored by the New Hampshire Housing Finance Authority, whose mission is, in part, to promote affordable housing.
Thibeault found on average a stand alone single family house actually translates into only half a student in the public school system.
And that rate is higher than any other building type including apartment complex and mobile homes.
The economist says it's understandable where the popular misconception came from.
The state's youngest population grew dramatically.
8:37 enrollment growth in the 90's was primarily b/c there were a lot of baby boomers- people like me- kids who were in the school age population. Going forward the boomers age out..
Thibeault says subsequent populations have been smaller.
The New Hampshire Office of Energy and Planning projects that while the state's overall population will increase this decade by over 150,000, the number of school age children will grow by only 5,500.
12:38 Russ's report is a godsend to anybody in the residential housing development sector in NH...
That's Manchester-area developer Dick Anagnost who has been trying to build affordable housing projects for years.
12:51 it's always come up about the school children and their impact on taxes and the local economy, however in the last ten years, it's become the focal point...with respect to cost and how many children there are going to be.
Anagnost says before this study he's defended his projects by pulling out national Housing and Urban Development numbers.
But he says locals always offered the same rebuttal.
14:37 in the black hills of Tennessee or somewhere out in Wyoming, that may be the case, but that's not the case in New Hampshire. Ross's report now will be an invaluable tool to someone like myself, to go in front of a planning board and talk intelligently about what is going on in New Hampshire.
While the report may arm developers like Anagnost with new data, he acknowledges the report won't convince everyone.
One lawmaker for example, when told about the findings, scoffed.
He said the numbers don't square with reality in his town.
But economist Russ Thibeault is confident in his research that relies on census data as well as numbers from Bedford, Hudson, Rochester and Lebanon.
38:52 for this study to be distorted, I would have to invent census data. For this study to be distorted I would have to invent the school enrollment data that I got directly form the school districts...it is all numbers, it is no opinion.
The New Hampshire Housing Finance Authority is pleased.
This report now gives them factual data in court cases, with lawmakers and in front of planning boards.
And with nearly 10% of New Hampshire households paying more than half their income on housing, the authority believes they'll need the help.
For NHPR News, I'm DG.
