Within the next few days the Department of Defense will announce whether the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard will be placed on a list to close.
Locally in Maine and New Hampshire, politicians, businesses and workers have predicted severe economic and personal pain if the base eventually shuts down.
But communities from Charleston, South Carolina to (va-yay-ho) Vallejo, California have absorbed previous closures and have managed to survive.
New Hampshire Public Radio's Dan Gorenstein reports locally some officials are starting to consider the daunting question 'What happens if the Shipyard does close?'
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Last month the New Hampshire Department of Employment Security published a report entitled 'What if the Shipyard Closed?'
According to the authors the total civilian payroll exceeds 318 million dollars a year, and the shipyard spends about 5 million dollars annually on goods and services.
In addition the federal government pumps in more than 46 million dollars to help run the base.
Take all those millions of dollars away, says New Hampshire Employment Security economist Peter Bartlett, and people notice.
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2:02 it's certainly the closing of one of the largest employers in that area. And a closing of any large area makes a big impact on the local economy. First of all it impacts the people out of work. And for them, it's devastating. Then it impacts the places they spend their money. And that can be significant particularly if you are talking about businesses that are dependent on the wages of shipyard workers.
The Yard employs engineers, architects, painters, plumbers, electricians and machinists among others.
All told, 48 hundred civilians and about 800 navy personnel work there.
The average wage is $65 thousand dollars a year, according to the report.
Given the dollar figures, the authors conclude if the Shipyard does close the recovery period would likely be long and protracted.
3:13 ... after four rounds of BRAC and 30 years of doing this. Communities do survive base closure.
That's Tim Ford, executive director of the non-profit Association of Defense Communities.
Their organization has worked with cities and towns that have dealt with base closures.
...It's not that it's going to be perfect right away. But communities have been able to work very hard and create new economic opportunity.
Ford firmly believes there is life after base closure.
And he recommends a good first step is to devise a Plan B.
That's exactly the process the town of Kittery has begun.
Kittery applied for and received a federal grant to launch a preliminary economic development plan.
The town hired consultants to take an inventory of existing infrastructure and the island's resources.
Town manager Jonathan Carter says the consultants will also assess economic conditions that could affect whatever would eventually replace the Shipyard.
7:26 I think what the study will be looking at is the strengths and weaknesses of the region. And if the shipyard goes out, what is there that could pick up the pieces? What should the region be attracting to bring it back to a revitalized region?
Even with the best laid plan, nearly everyone recognizes a base closure means hard times.
But what the region must keep clear, says New Hampshire Employment Security economist Peter Bartlett, is that redevelopment means two things.
Restore lost jobs.
And figure out what to do with the property, Seavey Island.
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6:48 You don't have to replace all those jobs on Seavey Island, you can find places for those people to work in Kittery and York and the Berwicks, Dover, Portsmouth, Rochester. The Pease Redevelopment Auhtority lands. That's what needs to be done as quickly as possible, replace those jobs. Seavey Island can be redeveloped over time. if you can find something that fits right away, great. But it's not as much a priority as replacing those jobs that are lost.
Planning consultants and economic developers are skeptical some new big anchor tenant would come in- save the day- and keep employing all the workers at 65 thousand dollars a year.
If for no other reason than that building and repairing nuclear submarines isn't exactly a growth field.
But Durham-based consultant Craig Seymour says a highly skilled unemployed workforce could be tempting enough to lure some businesses to the area.
8:19.... in an ideal world you have Navy work slowing down, with private sector activity building up. And hopefully it's with some of those jobs. And this has occurred at some of the other shipyards, you have some people laid off at the shipyards and the next day for a contractor for government work, or a private sector firm that is going to do something similar using those skills.
Seymour's vision however doesn't include a wage to match what shipyard workers are making today.
And Kittery Town Manager Jonathan Carter agrees, the workers shouldn't hold their breath.
9:12 ...I think we've seen from Pease and Loring, they don't happen overnight...as you begin to have your plan implemented, it's going to take 5-10 years of turnaround before you see some good results coming from your hard work. That's true of all the case studies we've looked at around the country.
One of those case studies is the former Mare Island navy base in Vallejo, California.
That shipyard employed 6000 civilians, and was closed in 1996.
To date, economic developer Gil Hollingsworth says, the town has managed to replace 1700 of those lost jobs.
Hollingsworth says environmental cleanup has slowed Mare Island's business development.
But the jobs that do exist, he says they don't approach the old base wage.
7:49 oh no. I am going to say no b/c the folks on the island, they were government employees, but they were welders and things like that. That's not necessarily the type, we have all kinds of things from truck driving school to a medical university. So I don't think the wages are comparable to the federal salaries.
Overall, Hollingsworth says redevelopment of Vallejo is going fairly well.
The town is on track to build 1400 new homes on the island.
His advice to any community that's about to lose a military base: invest in social services.
13:02 the greatest issue you all have to think about is the affect on the folks who are going to lose their jobs. We had a job retraining program paid for the federal government, sponsored by the local unions here to train people to move on to other jobs. We beefed up our various social service agencies, so that they were prepared to handle the stress of losing your job.
If Metal Trades Council President Paul O'Connor's state of mind is any indication there's plenty of stress already at the Shipyard.
He says if the Navy chooses to close the Shipyard he will feel betrayed.
He'd like to see some heavy industry move in.
But he concedes, grimly, that's not likely.
He guesses in a few years the Yard would be overrun with condos.
4:54...unfortunately, contractors who will make a lot of money putting up condos, resorts, hotels. That seems to be what happens in this area these days. We replace good useable commercial land with condos, and the like. It's great for contractors, they make a few million bucks and they split. But it doesn't really help the economy.
O'Connor predicts that even if that development did bring in jobs, it would be as maids and dishwashers, not high paying positions with benefits.
But Durham consultant Craig Seymour says he can imagine more than high-end housing on Seavey Island.
Two years ago, his firm was hired to assess some of the buildings on the base.
17:58 I can see a lot of things going on there...I can see it as a very exciting place for a lot of people working. it's a wonderful waterfront location. You can mixed use, people living there, some retail, as well as industry, it could be office work, it could be boat building, there is a whole bunch that might happen there.
Mixed use, waterfront space may sound nice, but it certainly has a price.
For example, out at the Mare Island base in California developers figure for every person who worked at the base another 1.5 jobs were lost in the local economy.
That's a total of 15 thousand jobs.
Metals Council President Paul O'Connor thinks no matter how beautiful, innovative and exciting a new project could be, it wouldn't be worth it.
He just thinks about where he likes to get his slice of mushroom and sausage pizza.
15:49 ... right outside gate 1, the townhouse of pizza. It's full of shipyarders at lunchtime. Without us, I'm not sure it would even be there. All kinds of small businesses depend on the shipyard for their survival.
The announcement is expected sometime over the next few days.
However, the list is preliminary and the Shipyard could be either pulled off the list or put on it between now and September.
Any base closures also require Presidential and Congressional approval.
For NHPR News, I'm DG.
