The polls show Governor Benson and Democrat John Lynch in a close race for the corner office. But in terms of the money race, Lynch has outpaced Benson. Both candidates have relied heavily on their own checkbooks to finance their campaigns but looking at individual donations, Lynch has the support of more than twice as many New Hampshire residents as Benson.
Unfortunately for Lynch, the connection between donations and votes is not one to one. New Hampshire Public Radio's Jon Greenberg has more.
No matter how you crunch the donor numbers, Lynch has more to feel good about than Benson. He got more money from more people in more New Hampshire towns than did the governor. Of the four cities that generated the most cash, Manchester, Concord, Portsmouth and Bedford, Benson came out on top only in Portsmouth.
Lynch spokeswoman, Pam Walsh, says the contribution patterns show the breadth of grassroots support for her candidate.
CUT Walsh There's also an energy about changing the leadership in Concord. And it motivates them to get involved in a lot of ways. Putting signs on their lawns, putting out mailings.. as well as contributions.
Walsh takes heart in the numbers, but over in the Benson camp, this pattern of giving gives rise to little concern. Spokeswoman Alicia Preston says the connection between giving and voting is weak.
CUT Preston: The governor has broad support across the state. Some of that is demonstrated financially. Most of it will be demonstrated on November second.
Political analysts tend to agree that voting doesn't track with donations. The reason campaigns harvest so much money from Manchester and Concord is due to the number of law firms, lobbyists and companies with offices there who do business with the state. And while lawyers do vote, they don't vote in proportion to the dollars they give. Portsmouth gave more to Benson, but that likely stems from the number of executives who know Benson from his Cabletron CEO days. And few observers expect Benson to carry Portsmouth in the election.
Pollster Andrew Smith at the UNH Survey Center says if Benson hasn't done so well raising money, it's probably due to the very success he enjoyed as a businessman.
CUT Smith: When you have as much money as he does. When you've already demonstrated a readiness to spend on your own campaign, I would imagine there are a lot of Republicans who say "Why should I write him a check. The guy's got more money than he knows what to do with. He can fund his own campaign."
But none of this means that the political geography of contributions is irrelevant. Benson's home town of Rye hints at some interesting dynamics. Benson raised about 22-thousand dollars from Rye residents. Lynch collected less money, about 5 thousand less, but more people in Rye gave to Lynch than to Benson – 25 compared to 19.
The numbers are too small to permit strong conclusions, but political scientist Dante Scala at St. Anselm College, says Rye demonstrates why the governor's race is so close. Scala says, if Lynch is going to win, he'll need to do well in places just like Rye.
CUT Scala: I mean areas, towns that tilted Republican four years ago. Areas where Bush did a little better, 4-6 points, than he did statewide. John Lynch is going to need to do well in those areas – prosperous, upper middle income slightly Republican areas.
Scala also sees an interesting trend in the range of towns that generated significant sums of money. It wasn't only the big city power centers where political muscle has survived since the waves of immigration in the last century. Now, smaller towns such as Bow, Amherst and Hampton show up in the top ten for both candidates. If that continues, Scala sees political power shifting back to the towns, more like the way things were in the 1800's.
For NHPR News, I'm Jon Greenberg.
