Most political polls still show President George Bush and Senator John Kerry neck and neck in New Hampshire.
Some days show Bush ahead, others Kerry.
But across the Connecticut River, Vermonters have pretty much decided which way their state will go.
It's been a safe Kerry state for some time.
But while voters are expected to approve a Democrat for President, they also seem quite happy with a Republican for Governor.
The Vermont Standard's Kevin Forrest has more.
A recent Vermont poll shows Republican Gov. Jim Douglas with a comfortable lead over Burlington mayor Peter Clavelle.
At the same time Vermonters heavily favor Democrat John Kerry for president.
Middlebury College Political Science Professor Eric Davis sees no contradictions.
(Davis) My sense is that Gov. Jim Douglas will be reelected pretty handily in Vermont in two weeks at the same time that Sen. John Kerry receives a very large share of Vermont?s vote. Indeed I would not be surprised to see both Kerry and Douglas get about 60 percent of the vote in Vermont.
Whenever he can, Clavelle tries to tie Governor Douglas to unpopular Bush Administration policies.
But Davis says Vermonters unhappy with the Iraq war, for example, can register their dissatisfaction in other races.
(Davis) They can vote for John Kerry for president, they can vote for Pat Leahy for Senator, they can vote for Bernie Sanders for congress. Most voters probably don?t see Iraq as an issue that the governor of Vermont has that much to do with and Peter Clavelle?s attempts to tie the Bush Administration foreign policy--which is admittedly very unpopular in Vermont--to Jim Douglas have not worked.
Still the incumbent governor walks a political tightrope in his support for the president.
Douglas - I have three lawsuits against the national administration now--two against the EPA with respect to the Midwest power emission rules and one against the food and drug administration with regard to importation of Canadian drugs. So I?ll support the president where appropriate, but I?ll always do what?s best for Vermont.
This moderate approach keeps Douglas? support broad-based.
Democratic Senate President Peter Welch:
(Welch) He?s avoided confrontration on issues. He doesn?t get himself locked in a corner.
Welch says Douglas presents a moderate face to the public and lawmakers.
But he also has a way to appease conservatives.
(Welch) He appeals to his conservative base in the Republican party essentially by appointing quite conservative people to many commissions that are below the radar.
Clavelle won seven terms as Burlington mayor as a progressive.
He became a Democrat in order to run for governor.
Clavel's left-liberal past could be helping Douglas to further shore up middle territory.
Douglas? political ads warn of Clavelle?s wild spending schemes.
But Clavelle doesn?t duck his socialist leanings, especially when it comes to health care.
(Clavelle) The governor believes that the market will solve the key issues before Vermont. I don?t have that kind of trust in the market. The market for health care is the insurance companies, the HMO?s, the pharmaceutical industry. They?re not going to solve this problem. We need government to lead, government to work with citizens and providers and consumers to solve this problem.
The governor?s fondness for cutting ribbons at grand openings or ground breakings earned him a nickname.
His detractors call him ?Governor Scissorhands.?
Opponent Peter Clavelle says it seems that all Douglas ever does is campaign.
(Clavelle) I would spend less time cutting ribbons and more time crafting policies that meet the needs of working families across the state.
But Douglas says cutting ribbons are an important part of his job.
(Douglas) Some have said I cut a lot of ribbons. Well, I do. And people seem very happy to see me do it. Because when a ribbon is being cut, something good is happening in our state.
Clavelle claims a major difference between them is that the governor favors top-down government.
(Clavelle) We come from different places, meaning that he spent his entire life in state government and I?ve spent my entire life in local government. I don?t believe for a moment that the wisdom of this state resides under that golden dome in Montpelier. I think the wisdom of Vermont is in communities large and small across the state
But in one small community, Hartland, VT, The Town Clerk Clyde Jenne says Governor Douglas is completely different from his predecessor.
He says former Governor Howard Dean acted like a little Napoleon.
But not Douglas.
(Jenne) The big number one on the license plate isn?t the first thing you see with Jim. It may be just a handshake or a smile.
Governor Jim Douglas carved himself a moderate political niche as a longtime representative and state treasurer.
That formula continues to work for him as governor, according to Professor Davis.
(Davis) He?s somebody who doesn?t polarize people. He?s a very, very low-key person. And he doesn?t arouse the intense passion that say, George W. Bush does.
Clavelle and Douglas are debating their way through the campaign?s final days.
If the pollsters prove correct, wins by both Kerry and Douglas won?t surprise too many Vermonters when they awake Nov. 3.
Governor Douglas.
(Douglas) Last time Bernie Sanders and I won. In 1980, Ronald Reagan and Pat Leahy both were successful in Vermont. So there?s a great deal of ticket-splitting.
For NHPR news, this is Kevin Forrest..
