Political Money is Good to Have But No Guarantee

By John Milne on Monday, April 5, 2004.
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The Democrats hope to announce their challenger to Governor Benson, the incumbent Republican, in the next week or so.

Finding a candidate comes along with the need to pay for a campaign.

And as New Hampshire Public Radio correspondent John Milne reports, the Democrats increasingly find their campaign money out of state.

It's April of 2004 and no Democrat has yet emerged to challenge incumbent Republican Craig Benson for governor.

Party chair Kathy Sullivan and party leaders have been talking to prominent Democrats in an effort to recruit candidates.

(polmoney1)
It's been frustrating, because a lot of people have put toes into the water. But getting them to take the plunge has been somewhat difficult.

One big problem is that Benson has very deep pockets. He spent an estimated $12-million dollars, largely his own money, to win the corner office in 2002.

Benson hasn't formally announced his candidacy, but knowledgeable Republicans say he's had a couple of fund-raising events in the last several months.

The governor's acknowledged that "some back room stuff," as he put it, was under way. He said he hoped this race would be cheaper than the 2002 campaign.

But Benson still has those deep pockets. And the Democrats have to find deep pockets of their own.

A new study reveals that the Democrats found big money in 2002. The Center for Public Integrity, an outfit that tracks money in politics, reckoned that New Hampshire Democrats raised more cash for federal races than Republicans.

Derek Willis is a researcher for the nonpartisan center.

(polmoney2)
In fact, about 18 million dollars of the total money that was raised by New Hampshire political parties came from the national political parties in the form of soft money transfers coming into New Hampshire.

That's more than 10 million for Democrats and 8 million for Republicans.

Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen can take credit for luring some of that national money to the state. She ran and lost to Republican John Sununu in the race for Bob Smith's Senate seat.

There's no guarantee that amount of political money will be available in 2004. Derek Willis:

polmoneyA
I think the state parties will raise pretty good sums of money. What they won't have is the soft money that's been coming into New Hampshire and other states across the country.
One catch: The Democrats need a candidate.

There's another catch: The candidate will have to prove that he or she is competitive.
Kathy Sullivan:

(Polmoney4)
Is that person seen as competitive, and that will be based on maybe polling, a campaign plan, and whether that person is willing to put money into the race or raise money.

And more money doesn't guarantee political victory.

In spite of their relative cash disadvantage, New Hampshire Republicans swamped the Democrats in 2002.

There's one more wildcard: The presidential coattails factor. Pollster Andy Smith:

(polmoney5)
New Hampshire was very close in 2000, it's likely to be fairly close this time around, it's certainly going to be treated as a close race by both Republicans and Democrats.

Political strategists are calling New Hampshire a battleground state in the presidential race. Governor Benson's expected campaign aside, this New Hampshire election could be more lavish than ever.

For N-H-P-R News, I'm John Milne

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