Manchester is New Hampshire?s most populous city. In terms of the presidential primary, it may also be the most divided. As is the case statewide, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean is outpacing rivals. But Dean?s polling margin in Manchester is not as great as it is elsewhere. New Hampshire Public Radio?s Josh Rogers reports how this fits with the city?s political culture.
With upwards of 14,000 primary votes at stake, and a strong democratic tradition, Manchester is an obvious and crucial place to for primary candidates to seek votes???State senator Lou D?Allesandro has represented the queen city in various elected posts for more than thirty years. The ward 10 democrat says during his life in politics, Manchester has changed ? It?s population is now older and more ethnically diverse??It?s economy far less driven by industrial manufacturing?.D?Allesandro ? who?s also state chair of John Edwards?s presidential campaign ? believes the composition of Manchester?s current electorate demands that candidates must strike several chords.
"The more affluent will be more concerned with the tax cut??That will very important to them?..The elderly -- the prescription drug program is very important to them??Housing is very important to the new é©gr鳬 who are looking for affordable housing??so you have different things playing in different environments??And I think that has a very definite effect on how they vote."
D?Allesandro adds, though, that some things about Manchester remain constant. Foremost, he says, is the city?s fiscal conservatism. During the 1980s the city was a stronghold of so-called Reagan Democrats. And D?Allesandro says his advice to any candidate stumping in Manchester is to speak to basic concerns in a basic manner.
"I think you reduce things to the lowest common denominator??and they become an economic issue. The basic issues, the basic issues are economic issues?."
"When I am president I am going to have three goals??.Jobs, Jobs, Jobs?."
That?s Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt. He?s candidate whose message rarely veers from bread ans butter themes??.Apart from jobs, Gephardt?s used this recent town hall meeting on Manchester?s west side to tout his commitment to universal health insurance. The veteran congressman also at talked at great length about his working class roots.
"I grew up poor??Dad?s best job was teamster mill truck driver?..he lost it after ten years?.we had no money. I can still see him sitting at out little desk trying to pay the bills??."
Such messages drew an emotional response from the audience ? who at this meeting were largely a mix of union members and the over 45 set. ?..Eileen Pearson is a retired VA worker who said??Gephardt?s background inspires her trust.
"He?s from the root??.He?s from the old time root American???and the people in that room today felt that. The other ones? I went to see Clark, I think he?d be good also."
-And what about Howard Dean?
"I think all the democrats are good people, but I?m afraid of the super rich??.and he?s super super rich?..and I?m a little afraid of that."
In fact, Howard Dean is not super rich. The former Vermont governor was raised in affluence, but has far less personal wealth that some of his democratic rivals. Even so, the perception that Dean is the candidate of so-called elite democrats is clearly a notion that other campaingns are trying to exploit. Ray Buckley is chairman of Manchester city democrats, and a supporter of Connecticut senator Joe Lieberman.
"A telling example of how governor Dean is not attracting the sort of normal regular working class people here in Manchester?.Was at the Manchester city democrats holiday party??just a couple of weeks ago. Granted it was the day of a snowstorm, but over 100 people got together at the Athens restaurant and there were people from all the other campaigns and but not from dean??His real lack of connection to the working class people is of great concern."
Buckley delivered that remark at a recent Joe Lieberman visit to a South Willow Street tavern where Lieberman campaign staffers outnumbered voters by about 3 to 1. Earlier the same night, less than 3 miles away Howard Dean drew more than 200 to a town hall meeting. When he outlined his strategy for defeating President Bush, Dean indicated that his approach to securing the White House will not be based on the Clinton??of trying to win from the middle. Instead, Dean said he would co-opt a strategy pioneered by the GOP ? raise a lot of money and be unapologetically partisan.
"Karl Rove?s theory --which has worked for the last three years because we are losing ground --is that if that if you energize your own base and get them really excited and really well organized??the people in the middle are drawn towards the party organized then with the greatest energy, greats enthusiasm and greatest hope."
The wisdom of such a strategy has been questioned by the other top tier candidates, who have all to varying degrees sought to position themselves as themselves as inheritors of the Clinton/Gore mantle??.Yet Dean?s potentially more divisive approach may jibe with recent demographic trends??. According to Andy Smith of the UNH survey center, the past decade has seen a ten percent rise in democratic newcomers who identify themselves as liberal.
"The newer arrivals tend to be more supportive of Howard dean and he?s pitched his message very specifiacaly to that electorate. A good example is in out latest poll 46 percent of the overall democrats say they are going to vote for Howard dean, 53 percent of those who have moved to nh in the past five years say they are going to vote for Howard Dean."
But the typical new democrat in Smith?s analysis ? younger, more educated ? is not the dominant group in Manchester. What sets the city apart is it?s political culture. The democratic organization is robust, and accustomed to dealing with established democratic leaders. Over the years, Dick Gephardt has made a point of helping local democrats. So has John Kerry. Manchester Mayor Bob Baines has endorsed the Massachusetts senator.
"He is a Senator and a leader that interacts on a regular basis with mayors and he?s made that kind of commitment, that?s not the standard procedure, I have found in government."
This kind of experience tends to put Manchester democrats into the various camps of their party?s more more traditional contenders. And the result is an electorate in Manchester that is more divided that any other area in the state.
