New Hampshire Public Radio is traveling around the state to see how the presidential primary is unfolding in different regions.
In the Massachusetts border towns of Salem and Nashua people tend to agree Howard Dean and John Kerry are running the strongest campaigns.
But to the surprise of many, the southern tier has yet to become what many predicted a year ago would be a Kerry stronghold.
With recent polls suggesting a growing Dean lead, the Kerry campaign and its supporters understand the Massachusetts Senator must win big here, if he wants a shot at the Democratic nomination.
Dan Gorenstein has the story.
Ralph Stein moved his law practice from Massachusetts to Salem, New Hampshire in 1969, but he'll tell you he's still a Massachusetts guy.
And he says plenty of his neighbors are just like him.
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:00 ... A lot of people think that Ted Kennedy is still their senator. This is southern NH, the main newspaper is Lawrence Eagle Tribune, the second big thing is the Boston Globe, we listen to MA. TV stations, 4,5,7.
In Nashua, the second most read daily newspaper behind the Telegraph is the Boston Globe.
Nashua?s chamber of commerce estimates that every day about 90 thousand vehicles from this area cross into the Bay State.
St. Anselm visiting Professor Dean Spiliotes calls the southern tier the Boston suburbs.
He says people have a distinct preference in presidential candidates: they like moderates.
3:15 when asked the question do you believe the Democrats should nominate someone whose political ideology is closer to Clinton or somebody more liberal, the strongest supporters from someone who wanted Clinton are in the Boston suburbs.
This area would seem to be ripe for a Kerry candidacy.
But UNH Survey Center?s Andy Smith says Kerry just doesn?t have the support.
5:14... looking at the numbers from this latest poll he?s got some serious trouble in his backyard. Of people who live on that border, 54% say they are going to vote for Dean. That?s higher than the statewide average of 46%. Only 19% of people on the Mass border say they are going to vote for Kerry. He doesn?t too particularly on the Mass border than he does statewide where he is at 17%.
Smith says part of the problem could be that his campaign didn?t started here a little bit late.
In contrast, Salem attorney Ralph Stein says Dean?s people come on like proselytizers.
With a mix of amazement and irritation, Stein says the field organizers were all over him like nats.
But the eager organizing isn?t why Stein joined the Dean campaign.
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:29 if K. had voted against the war, I think I might have taken a different position vis a vi Kerry Dean. I think the problem with K. is he seems to be imploding. I think he is still looking for his message. And I feel bad for the guy...I think he blew it on the war, and is still trying to find himself. He is still trying to find an excuse why he voted for the war.
A number of people, including Kerry supporters, believe if Kerry had voted differently on the Iraq resolution, Howard Dean would be an afterthought.
But Kerry?s style is as much of an issue as his position on Iraq.
Retired school librarian Andrea Cauldwell also backs Dean.
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1:13 Dean?s people have gone out to ask voters what they feel about the government. Whether it be education, whether it be with our armed forces...the cost of higher education...and unemployment and taxes, rather than telling us what we want to hear, he is asking us...and there are position papers. K. it?s like as if he comes across as a know-it-all. And that?s a big difference right there.
Kerry struggles against the perception that he?s aloof and arrogant.
At a campaign event in Salem, even campaign supporter Greg Warner wishes his candidate came across differently.
Warner says people don?t know the real John Kerry.
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:15 politics and elections are not won by logic. Are not won by rationality. They are won by passion. And John Kerry is a very passionate man, but I guess he spent so much time in the Senate that he doesn?t talk that way. I kindof know him.
Certainly Kerry?s entrance at the Salem event was designed to exude energy.
Track 3
Kerry intro music
After the Senator spooned out cups of chili to a crowd of about 85, he urged the crowd to ignore the polls that show Dean in the lead.
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:24 Ladies and gentleman, let me tell you something, this campaign is moving. And I can feel in the last days, people are beginning to stop and question who can be president of the USA. Who is ready to step into those shoes, who?s got the experience, who knows how to make America safer?...you look at these polls, don?t look at the polls, (begin fade out here) there you are shaking your head, how many times has NH moved in the last three or four weeks, when people start to pay attention?
Kerry?s supporters say, from what they can see, the polls are wrong.
Dick O?Shaunessy chairs the Kerry committee in Salem.
He won?t promise that Kerry will win state wide, but he is certain he will take the town.
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:56...I think, I think when push comes to shove, I don?t know about the rest of the state...but if you are asking me honestly, I honestly think, John Kerry will win in Salem...I believe that, I believe that. We are going to win in Salem.
Even Dean supporters like Shelia Murray think the race will tighten.
Murray sits on the Salem Democratic Committee with O?Sahunessey.
She says Kerry has good reason to work hard for votes here.
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:28 I think on the Democratic side, I think Dean will win, but I think it will be close between Kerry and Dean. And I don?t know why I say that b/c I am not involved in the Kerry campaign at all, but traditionally, Salem tends to go, at least in the past, with the person, Dean is a little bit of a renegade, and Kerry isn?t, he?s more the traditional politician, and that?s been Salem?s history.
The Kerry campaign is expected to focus much of its attention on the southern tier in the weeks leading up to the primary.
For NHPR News, I?m DG.
