Claremont: A Primary Bellwether?

Raquel Maria Dillon's picture
By Raquel Maria Dillon on Friday, December 12, 2003.
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The city of Claremont might be best known for the school funding lawsuit that bears its name, but the Upper Valley community also has a particular reputation among political observers. It is a pretty good indicator of how well Democratic presidential candidates will perform in states after New Hampshire.

Back in 1992, Massachusetts senator Paul Tsongas won the primary, but in Claremont, Bill Clinton was the big winner and of course, went on the take the nomination.

There might only be about 17-hundred votes in Claremont, but they're being eagerly courted by the candidates today.

As part of New Hampshire Public Radio's coverage of the primary around the state, reporter Raquel Maria Dillon talked with Claremont voters.

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry must really like chili. At a Claremont retirement home earlier this week, he put on an apron to serve up chili for the 7th time this campaign season.
KERRY :03 I serve a mean bowl of chili!

With the help of the chili cooks and supporters with International Association of Firefighters, turnout was good ? about 75 people. More importantly, Kerry?s newest field office had reached beyond his base to draw in undecided voters. Two young mothers, Loretta Mills and Jamie Billil (bih-LYLE), were waiting in the chili line with toddlers on their hips.
MILLS :19 we?re undecided. Our primary interest is what he?s going to do about public education.
BILLIL we have babies we want to know what it?s going to be like for them in the future.
MILLS Healthcare too! Rx costs.
KID Aaaaagghhhh!
MILLS ?specially in Claremont, if he hits on public education, that?s a big concern in Claremont

As it turned out Kerry didn?t talk much about education ? but his stump speech on foreign policy was well-received. Senior citizens made up most of the crowd. Barbara Prinn was undecided, but afterwards she was completely charmed by Kerry?s wife, Teresa Heinz, and impressed with the senator?s experience.
PRINN :10 I think I am decided. Both he and Gephardt have been in Washington they know the nitty-gritty run the government. Which is something Dean does not know.

Former mayor and school board member, Chris ShaBAN, says Claremont voters understand politics and pay attention to issues. In fact he says, the city has become a bit of a bellwether in big elections.
SHABAN :13 not to brag, but last year during gubernatorial campaign. We?re the only city who picked the winner in each ward. No other community can lay claim to that. We ultimately picked winner in both races.

Shaban says Claremont voters are pragmatic. As the town?s manufacturing base has eroded, the Claremont electorate has changed. Now Shaban says it?s difficult to peg where the community falls on the political spectrum.
SHABAN :13 I supported Benson and Shaheen. I?m an independent voter. A lot of people in Claremont are. We?re very independent, I guess we could be considered a Dem community, but we?re very fiscally responsible.

Shaban say voters here care about job creation, the economy, and taxes. His choice came down to Kerry or Dean this year. He says went with Kerry because of his experience and conviction. Another former mayor of Claremont, Ray Gagnon, is still unsure. Gagnon says three candidates have established strong organizations in Claremont.
GAGNON :19 here in Claremont we have working class trade union background strongly tied to Dem party. congressman Gephardt has a certain base of support here in Claremont. Kerry has strong team here. Dean?s people are very enthusiastic. ?

Simple geography has given Dean an advantage here. Most people watch Vermont TV stations. Throughout the summer, he passed by several times on his way to and other parts of the state. But for Gagnon, the proximity to Vermont doesn?t explain Dean?s strong polling.
GAGNON :20 There must be something I?m not seeing. I?m impressed with all of them I thought this would be closer race. if there?s strong Dean support then it?s just part of a momentum, part of his organization, he has a excellent ground field org that?s seems to be getting out his message.

AMBI office

In Claremont, Dean?s field organization is run out of this office. On a grey afternoon, there are 2 staffers, 3 volunteers, 4 computers, plus lawn signs, neighborhood maps, and a huge calendar listing upcoming house parties? Volunteer Melissa Cole was making calls.
COLE :13 my father actually got me interested in Dean backing Jan. My father is big Democrat my mother big Republican. She?s been voting Republican all her life now she?s working for Dean.

Like many Dean supporters, Cole says she was inspired by Dean?s calls to take back the Democratic party and his stance against the war in Iraq.
No campaign should be judged by one field office on a single afternoon, but upstairs in the same building, Gephardt?s field office is quiet. Campaign staffer Shane Levine was back after canvassing in the snow. Gephardt signed on a couple of key political activists here ? people he?s known since his first run for the Democratic nomination in 1988. Levine concedes that the Dean campaign has a much more visible presence around town.
LEVINE :14 VT is neighboring state and he?s been here for years. it?s the reality of situation. It?s just like our strength in Iowa, it?s just the expectation.

He says Claremont?s blue collar workers are receptive to Gephardt?s message about protecting the middle class. But Dean?s organization is formidable.
LEVINE :13 what?s exceptional about dean group is that he?s gathering people who who?ve been disenfranchised from process, now becoming actively involved.

But Levine says many people come around when they hear that Gephardt is running neck and neck with Dean in Iowa, and learn more about his positions.
There?s little evidence of the other campaigns here ? although Edwards, Lieberman have been here twice and Clark will hold a town hall meeting here within the week.
Undecided voter Ray Gagnon predicts that the race will get closer come January, when people like him make up their minds. And he says it will be worthwhile to watch what happens in Claremont.
GAGNON :19 Western NH ? it?s a microcosm of the nation. The vote that comes out of Claremont quite frankly is going to give you a reflection of what other former manufacturing Rust Belt communities are gonna vote in the larger states and bigger primary population states.

Political activists are already referring to Western New Hampshire as ?Dean Country.? But by that, they generally mean the larger cities of Hanover, Lebanon, and Keene. Claremont is a different story. And some would say more representative of the relative appeal of the candidates, that the state as a whole.
For NHPR News, I?m RMD, in Claremont.

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