At midnight tonight, the polls will close in cyberspace. MoveOn-dot-org, a liberal internet-based political organization, is holding what it calls the first online presidential primary. Most of the Democratic presidential candidates have been falling over themselves to get out the vote. New Hampshire Public Radio?s Raquel Maria Dillon asked, does a virtual victory translate into real results?
New Hampshire has had a lot of practice at protecting its first in the nation primary status. Now, as if competition from Michigan, South Carolina and Delaware weren?t enough, the state faces a new challenger ? from an upstart website called MoveOn-dot-org.
MoveOn aims to have 250-thousand people vote before the cutoff at midnight Wednesday. They say that would be more than the total number of votes in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary combined.
To hear Zack Exley of MoveOn describe it, his organization?s approach takes the best of the New Hampshire tradition and makes it better.
EXLEY :16 we want to reinforce the thing that NH has always stood for, which is grassroots voters speaking out at a time that it really counts. Unfortunately, NH primary isn?t early enough. The process is already in play.
MoveOn wanted to have a say before the pollsters and political elites do. Registration closed on Monday. If anyone gets over 50% of the vote, MoveOn will endorse that candidate, and encourage members to donate to the winner?s campaign.
But what does it mean to win an online primary? Among public opinion researchers, not much ? especially if you?re trying to understand which candidate enjoys the most popular support.
Andy Smith is the director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. He says you can?t call MoveOn?s internet poll a real primary. It attracts a select group of voters, and the cost of getting out the vote is next to nothing.
SMITH :13 It?s not very expensive to drive your supporters to a website and have them vote in a straw poll like this. But what are you buying with your time and money there? Some publicity. No delegates. You?re just getting yourself some spin.
Some campaigns are complaining that there's no guarantee against fraud, or ballot-stuffing.
John Kerry?s New Hampshire Spokeswoman Judy Reardon:
REARDON :12 email savvy people have more than one email address. I?m gonna vote 3 times in the moveon.org primary b/c I have 3 email addresses.
MoveOn says that won?t happen because they can track multiple email addresses back to the same voter. The group even hired an pollster to call a sample of voters to verify the online results.
Despite doubts, there?s something irresistible about an internet primary. Almost every campaign emailed their supporters to remind them to vote.
Even Reardon?s colleagues on the Kerry campaign in Washington began to take this seriously. Kerry?s national staff bought internet banner ads and sent out a round of automated phone calls. Their national spokesman Robert Gibbs justified the expense, saying the calls did more than just talk about MoveOn.
GIBBS :13 the phone calls again are to previously identified supporters. People who had filled out info on card, said name was Robert Gibbs but didn?t give email address. To bolster our online communication efforts.
Political strategists are still trying to figure out the best way to use the web.
For some campaigns, the MoveOn primary fits perfectly with the strategy they?ve been using from the start. Howard Dean?s campaign manager, Joe Trippi, says the MoveOn primary is a legitimate test of political support.
TRIPPI :14 those people who say the thing?s rigged are making excuses for why they?re gonna have their rear ends handed to them in this thing. They haven?t been talking to these activists, working on internet, speaking to them in their speeches or message?
At a time when most of the public is still not paying attention to the race, Democrats are hungry for any headlines they can muster. A win in the online primary might not be much of a win, but at least the prevailing candidate gets bragging rights.
More importantly, a MoveOn endorsement might deliver a shot in the arm to fundraising efforts. MoveOn will use its massive email list to urge its 1.4 million members to contribute to the winning candidate.
St. Anselm College political science professor Dante Scala says the effectiveness of that appeal is really what?s at stake.
SCALA :16 what will be interesting to see is whether MoveOn can actually translate an endorsement into something meaningful. And what I mean by that is would a candidate endorsed by MoveOn be able to raise money quickly, instantaneously over the Internet.
Primaries are won on the ground with the traditional tools of campaigning ? fundraising, ads, and local field organizations. That?s expensive and time-consuming.
In contrast, MoveOn?s online primary is cheap and easy. The question facing both MoveOn and the campaigns is whether they can convert virtual, grassroots support into bricks-and-mortar success on the campaign trail.
For NHPR News, I?m RMD.
