The two democrats seeking the Governor's office share a commitment to funding schools with an income tax. They also share similar positions on most policy matters, and are both sitting State Senators. But in terms of political style, and perceived political aptitudes, Beverly Hollingworth and Mark Fernald could not be more different.
On the stump, the democratic hopefuls stress the same basic themes?..
"We can fund a long term solution to our school funding crisis?..And fairness for all taxpayers??We need fairness in taxation we need improvements in public education?I will repeal the statewide property tax?..I will repeal the statewide property tax??That?s the basic message?.the middle incomes are picking up more of the burden than they should."
If Fernald and Hollingworth are confident an income tax driven overhaul of the state?s revenue collecting is winning message?..Perhaps they ought to consider the words of 2000 republican Gubernatorial candidate?..Dr. Jim Squires??His income tax platform netted him a distant second place primary finish behind the virulently anti-tax Gordon Humphrey. Squires says intellectual and moral arguments notwithstanding, income tax remains a tough sell?.
"The challenge is to get the citizens to understand a very complex situation that basically they don?t want to hear about?.That makes people very uncomfortable?.That is in a sense bad news?.or if not that, a major change?.That is very, very difficult to do absent a major catastrophic event."
Whether or not skyrocketing property tax bills and a looming state deficit of more than 100 million dollars qualifies as catastrophic is hard to know?.Pro-income tax democratic activist Arnie Arnesen?..whose 1992 Gubernatorial bid yielded just under 42 % in the general election says catasprophy or not, a cannily crafted pitch is will be essential for any income taxer.
"You can talk about what will happen to the business taxes in the business community talk about what will happen for property tax payers??You can actually do the math for them?..All those things are worthy and valid?.but what is crucial is that it?s not about a buckshot generic audience. What is crucial is that they have to find the individual families where the message can be targeted the math can be done and that people will be far better off."
If that targeted message is the hope for democrats, Hollingworth and Fernald offer distinctly different approaches??For Gary Hirshberg, CEO of Stoneyfiled farm yogurt and prominent state democratic benefactor, the better income tax messenger is clear.
"Bev is terrific I thought her campaign announcement was literally a profile in courage?.But I think Mark has really found a way to articulate the issue in a way that the middle, the independents, the republican moderates can understand?."
And Hirshberg?s conviction is echoed by most Fernald supporters?.Lila McLane Bradley of Hanover spoke for many at a recent Fernald fundraisiner.
"Now, Bev is supporting an income tax, finally, but it?s not her number one strong issue?..And Mark is strong on the income tax and going to fight for it all the way, which is the only way we?re going to get it in NH."
Hollingworth partisans see things differently??.Manchester attorney Greg Alghren served with Hollingwoth in the legislature during the 1980s. And hosted a recent Hollingworth for governor house party?..Alghren stresses that a change in state fiscal policy may have very little to do with campaign trail bravado.
"Certainly one way to get it through is for someone to lead the charge?.But on the other hand I think economic necessity might lead us there regardless of who?s at the helm?."
Given that, Algren says Hollingworth?s 20 year record of consensus-building, which the Hollingwoth camp says includes the passage of more that 300 pieces of legislation make her for a better choice for governor?..Much the same is stressed by Hollingworth herself?..
"I?ve made a difference. Mark has not?.Mark has not been able to pass a single piece of legislation. Mark hasn?t got anything to point at other than the income tax?.and you have to be able to bring people together to find compromise and I?ve been able to do that."
Such worlds appear not to phase Mark Fernald, who points out that he has an experience Hollingworth cannot match?..a run at the governor?s office in 2000, where he pulled 40 percent in the democratic primary despite facing two-term incumbent Jeanne Shaheen, and despite open hostility from many party regulars. And Fernald adds that he?ll happily take his chances on election day.
"The voters are going to have to decide who is the person who is going to be able to articulate the democratic message to move our party and our state forward?.and that?s what I?ve been doing for the past four years speaking about the need for reform in education, taxation and campaign finance reform. And I think the voters are going to recognize that I?ve been that leader and we?re going to move forward."
But According to 2000 gubernatirial candidate and former state Senator Jim Squires?..Familiarity with the issues and certitude of position may not prove enough?..He says any Governor who gets elected and then delivers the legislature a ready-made solution, regardless of it?s merit, could be in for some problems.
"You can?t solve complex public policy issues by starting with the answer?.that makes for great rhetoric it makes great ads, great speeches?But it doesn?t work in the legislative process to go saying I have all the answers and unless I have my way I?m going to vote down whatever is proposed."
1992 Democratic candidate Arnie Arnesen has a different take on the matter?..She says the right nominee with sufficient resources could carry the day and sway the legislature?.But unfortunately, says Arnesen, neither democrat fits that bill, particularly if the GOP nominates freespending Cabletron founder Craig Benson.
"Mark is more arrogant that God and Bev is clueless?..And so you?ve got two candidate with fundamental problems with their political style and they?re going to be running against a guy whose going to make Bloomberg look like a piker?."
But despite that assessment, Arnesen says she not counting out the income tax democrats just yet??
"I think you need a good recession with no mediscam money to bail us out?.We have such a fragile tax structure?.that a really good recession with no huge financial loopholes from the federal government will blow our socks off?.But we haven?t had that yet?.."
The latest polling numbers from the UNH survey center shows Bev Hollingwoth enjoying a slight edge???.with 44 pecent of likely democratic primary voters still undecided.
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