Estimates Vary Of How Much Gambling Would Raise

When Senators debated and then approved expanded gambling they were relying on revenue estimates from Finance Committee Chair Lou D’Allesandro.

This will result in the generation of 205 million dollars to the general fund over the biennium, with additional proceeds going to the municipalities and counties in which the video gaming takes place.

That 205 million dollar number would go a long way toward closing the state’s deficit estimated at 5 to 600 million dollars.

But that revenue figure seems to be a bit fluid.

After the budget vote, Senator D’Allesandro provided a different number, about 20 million dollars less.

Ahem, a 185 million is an aggregate. It’s the liscense fee, plus the stream that begins. And that’s a very low ball number because we only expected two venues to come on line.

The Senator says his estimates are conservative, to guard against being overly optimistic.

A spokesman for a group lobbying for gambling at Rockingham Park in Salem says Senator D’Allessandro is indeed playing it safe.

Rich Killion of “Fix it Now, New Hampshire”, a group backing Millenium Gaming, says one company consultant came up with more robust numbers.

They basically project that …. if there were 5000 machines at Rockingham Park it could produce a gross revenue estimate of 420 million dollars. Roughly half, 49 percent would go the state.

That would mean over 200 million dollars a year for the state, from just one venue.

Under that estimate, the state would take in more than twice what Senator D’Allesandro has been saying.

Killion says, however, the take during almost all of the first two years would be lower, because fewer machines would be in play during construction.

But he predicts it would still dwarf D’Allessandro’s estimates.

And that’s before one takes into account the 50 million dollars the operation would pay just for a license to run the video slots.

Jim Rubens of the Granite State Coalition Against Expanded Gambling says the industry’s numbers are typical of those of gambling operators.

He says the numbers stretch the imagination.

As they do repeatedly the predatory gambling industry always overestimates in order to lure the legislatures to vote for their stuff. They overestimate the amount of money.

Despite Rubens’ observations, the experience of at least one other state lends credibility to the industry’s claims.

Here’s what a Pennsylvania official says about revenue estimates put forward by their six casino and racino owners.

Thus far, the amount of revenue that’s been generated has exceeded what those expectations were.

That’s Doug Harbach of the Pennsylvania Control Board, which oversees video slot machines.

He says the state’s had expanded gambling since 2006, and returns have been strong.

As we look at it in Pennsylvania the six racinos are generating somewhere in the vicinity of six million dollars a day and really that ends up with our tax rate being about 3 million dollars a day that is coming to Pennsylvania for taxes.

A professor at the University of Nevada in Las Vegas says the numbers being bandied about in New Hampshire strike him as being conservative.

Dr. David Schwartz is the director of Gaming Research at the college.

His back-of-the-envelope calculations would have New Hampshire raising about 188 million dollars a year.

And, again, that’s around twice what Senator D’Allessandro estimates.

Schwartz admits his numbers could be too optimistic, since the economic downturn has hit the gambling industry.

Its easy to see if this less money floating around there’s less money to gamble.

Dr. Schwartz says he sees the effect of the weak economy on the Las Vegas gambling market.

We’ve had about a ten percent decline in revenues for 2008 and its it doesn’t look too great for 2009, either. So definitely there has been a decline.

A ten percent decline in Dr. Schwartz’s calculations would have New Hampshire netting almost 170 million dollars a year.

Under that scenario, the state might receive almost 400 million dollars if the license fee is included that first biennium.

That money would certainly go a long way toward helping the state close a 600 million dollar budget deficit.

But as gambling opponents would point out, there’s no free lunch.

They argue that what the state gets in revenue it may have to pay for with its quality of life.