The Atlantic Ocean is rising. If it rises another two feet in this century, more than a thousand acres of New Hampshire?s coastal communities will be in danger of flooding. That?s the finding of a report soon to be released by the Office of State Planning. NHPR?s Doug MacPherson reports.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE COASTLINE OF NEW HAMPSHIRE OVER THE MILLENNIUMS, CHANGE IS NOTHING NEW. 12-THOUSAND YEARS AGO, THE SEACOAST WAS THE TOWN OF BARRINGTON. TODAY, THAT?S TEN- MILES INLAND. ABOUT 11-THOUSAND YEARS AGO, YOU COULD WALK OUT TO THE ISLES OF SHOALS. WHAT INTERESTS TED DIERS, AN ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNER WITH THE OFFICE OF STATE PLANNING ? IS WHAT?S GOING TO HAPPEN TO THE COASTLINE IN THE RELATIVE NEAR FUTURE ? SAY ? THE NEXT ONE-HUNDRED YEARS.
TAPE DIERS I?m 100% certain that seas are going to rise. The seas have been rising for the last ten thousand years. For the last hundred years they?ve been rising at about 2 millimeters a year. So even if you just take the projection of two millimeters a year over the next hundred years, you get somewhere between 9 inches and a foot. :16
BUT WHAT IF THE RATE OF RISE IS HIGHER THAN THAT? WHAT IF PROJECTIONS BY THE INTER-GOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY ARE CORRECT ? THAT GREENHOUSE GASES ARE AFFECTING THE EARTH?S CLIMATE -- AND THE RATE OF SEA LEVEL RISE WILL BE TWO TO FIVE TIMES HIGHER IN THIS CENTURY THAN IT WAS IN THE 20TH CENTURY?
THE OFFICES OF STATE PLANNING AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ASKED U-N-H?S JACKSON LABORATORY TO TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT WOULD HAPPEN TO FLOODING ALONG NEW HAMPSHIRE?S COAST. COASTAL GEOLOGIST LARRY WARD IS THE REPORT?S PRIMARY AUTHOR.
TAPE LARRY WARD we know what?s happening today. There are pretty good records of storms. We have a pretty good elevation model developed. Well, what if we take the mean water level, and we increase that by two feet. What are the implications of that? And it doesn?t make a judgment on, well, this is going to happen or not going to happen. :16
A TWO FEET INCREASE WOULD BE ABOUT DOUBLE THE CURRENT RATE OF RISE ? A CONSERVATIVE INCREASE BY MOST CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTIONS. WARD STRESSES THE REPORT IS PRELIMINARY ? THAT MORE NEEDS TO BE KNOWN ABOUT COASTAL EROSION, WAVE REFRACTION, AND UNDERWATER TOPOGRAPHY ? TO NAME JUST A FEW. BUT HIS STUDY FINDS THAT ABOUT 11-HUNDRED ACRES OF LAND ALONG NEW HAMPSHIRE?S COAST WOULD BE VULNERABLE TO A FLOOD ? A 77-PERCENT INCREASE.
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WHAT WOULD THAT MEAN FOR SEACOAST TOWNS SUCH AS HAMPTON?
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HAMPTON IS USED TO FLOODING. A COUPLE OF TIMES A YEAR DURING A COASTAL STORM, TONS OF OCEAN WATER BEARING ROCKS AND DEBRIS CRASH OVER THE SEAWALL AND ONTO OCEAN BOULEVARD, FORCING ITS TEMPORARY CLOSURE. LOW-LYING AREAS OF TOWN ROUTINELY FLOOD. FRED CLEWS SERVED AT HAMPTON HARBOR MASTER IN THE 1970?S AND EIGHTIES.
TAPE FRED CLEWS 262 I?ve had water on storms in my driveway, probably within a foot of my front door like, and I?m four feet above the road. / 265 I?ve tried to get out at time and the water?s been up to my headlights, like on a Blazer, a good sized vehicles. That happens just once in a while on a bad storm, but if it ever crept up so we had that normally, you wouldn?t be able to drive around here. :25
HAMPTON?S TOWN MANAGER, JAMES BARRINGTON, SAYS A TWO FOOT RISE IN SEA LEVEL WOULD NECESSITATE MAJOR CHANGES IN THE TOWN?S INFRASTRUCTURE.
TAPE JAMES BARRINGTON just in terms of the sewer lines and the sewer man holes, and obviously everything would have to rise in order to keep the rising waters from getting into the system. People who have homes near the water would become more and more uneasy as they see the water getting closer and closer to their doorsteps on a regular basis. And so you would either start seeing fill or you would start seeing houses on stilts.
Or you might start seeing regulations that require further setbacks or things of that nature. And of course there?s a whole set of constitutional issues that get involved with that. :38
THOSE KINDS OF SETBACKS MIGHT BE CONSTRUED AS GOVERNMENT ?TAKINGS? OF LAND ? AND LANDOWNERS WOULD UNDOUBTEDLY SEEK COMPENSATION. BUT RISING WATERS MIGHT LEAD TO MORE IMMEDIATE SAFETY CONCERNS. CURRENT EMERGENCY PROCEDURES IN HAMPTON CALL FOR EVACUATING PEOPLE ACROSS MARSHLAND. BUT WHAT IF THE MARSHES THEMSELVES WERE NO LONGER MARSHLANDS? LARRY WARD, THE REPORT?S AUTHOR, SAYS OVER THE LAST CENTURY, NEW HAMPSHIRE?S COASTAL MARSHLANDS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO SEA LEVEL RISE. WARD DOESN?T KNOW WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF SEA LEVEL RISE DOUBLED.
TAPE LARRY the question then becomes, can the marshes maintain themselves, or transgress landward. What would happen with them? And considering their value as a coastal habitat, we think that?s a very important issue. : 10
THE REPORT RAISES OTHER CONCERNS. NEW HAMPSHIRE?S COAST HAS NEVER BEEN GREATLY AFFECTED BY EROSION, BUT THAT COULD CHANGE. AND AQUIFERS USED FOR DRINKING WATER COULD BE CONTAMINATED BY OCEAN WATER. THE OFFICE OF STATE PLANNING?S TED DIERS ADMITS HE FEELS A LITTLE LIKE CHICKEN LITTLE WHEN HE RAISES THESE CONCERNS. BUT GOOD LONG-RANGE PLANNING, HE SAYS, CAN COPE WITH ALL OF THEM BEFORE THEY BECOME PROBLEMS.
TAPE DIERS It?s just like preparing for any kind of disaster. It?s just like this is a really, really slow one. We have the advantage of time now. If we wait 50 years, then we don?t have the advantage of time. :14
FOR N-H-P-R NEWS, I?M DOUG MACPHERSON.
