New Hampshire political analysts are weighing the impact of possible changes to the Democratic presidential primary schedule. The Democratic National Committee is considering allowing states to schedule their primaries in early February, a month earlier than the 2000 start date. The move is re-igniting worries that the primaries have turned from a marathon, into a sprint. NHPR?s Trish Anderton reports.
THE DEMOCRATIC PLAN WOULD PRESERVE NEW HAMPSHIRE?S FIRST-IN-THE-NATION PRIMARY. BUT OTHER STATES COULD BEGIN SCHEDULING THEIR VOTES IN EARLY FEBRUARY, RIGHT ON NEW HAMPSHIRE?S HEELS. DEMOCRATIC LEADERS SAY THE MOVE MAKES SENSE BECAUSE IT MATCHES THEIR PARTY?S SCHEDULE MORE CLOSELY TO THE REPUBLICAN ONE. KATHLEEN SULLIVAN CHAIRS THE NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.
001 14 the republicans adopted a schedule in 2000 that had february 1 as the start date for primaries and caucuses. The DNC has been working with the RNC to have a similar calendar for both parties.
THAT SHOULD ALLEVIATE THE SCHEDULING GAPS THAT OCCURRED IN 2000, WHEN REPUBLICANS HELD KEY PRIMARIES DURING FEBRUARY WHILE THE DEMOCRATS OBSERVED A MONTH-LONG PAUSE. JIM ROOSEVELT COCHAIRS THE DNC?S RULES AND BYLAWS COMMITTEE.
005 40 what happens during a period like that is there isn?t a level playing field between the candidates from the two parties. Last time after the NEW HAMPSHIRE primary there was a period of aboutt five weeks during which only republicans were heard from and that is not conducive to a good public debate.
DEMOCRATS SAY IT WASN?T CONDUCIVE TO THEIR BANK BALANCES, EITHER. SULLIVAN SAYS SOME STATE PARTIES WERE STUCK WITH THE TAB FOR THEIR OWN PRIMARIES OR CAUCUSES WHEN THEY WERE UNABLE TO HOLD THEM ON THE SAME DATE AS THE REPUBLICANS.
001 114 if you?re running your own separate primary as opposed to the one done by the state, the party has to pick up the cost.
UNDER THE DEMOCRATIC PROPOSAL, THE GRANITE STATE COULD HOLD ITS PRIMARY UP TO TEN DAYS BEFORE THE FEBRUARY START DATE. BUT THE REPUBLICAN RULES DON?T CARVE OUT A SPACE FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE TO GO FIRST. REPUBLICAN STATE CHAIRMAN JOHN DOWD SAYS THE NET RESULT IS, THE DEMOCRATIC MOVE WOULD PUT NEW HAMPSHIRE AT ODDS WITH REPUBLICAN RULES
// this will likely force the NEW HAMPSHIRE primary into january. There?s a rule in the republican party that there can?t be any primary before feb. 1. so seemingly in an effort to achieve parity which I think was their desire, it?s put us in an awkward place.
THAT MEANS NEW HAMPSHIRE WOULD HAVE TO GET A WAIVER FROM THE RNC IN ORDER TO HOLD ITS PRIMARY FIRST. THE STATE SUCCEEDED IN GETTING A WAIVER IN 2000, AND DOWD SAYS THERE SEEMS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING ANOTHER IN 2004. BUT HE DOESN?T LIKE HAVING THE STATE RELY ON WAIVERS. FORMER ATTORNEY GENERAL TOM RATH AGREES. RATH ADDS THE DEMOCRATIC MOVE WILL LEAD TO A FLOOD OF EARLY PRIMARIES THAT WILL DAMAGE NEW HAMPSHIRE.
10 12 what it allows is somebody to skip New Hampshire, because it creates an immediate place to go. So if you wanted to skip New Hampshire it gives you an excuse to do so.
ANALYSTS OF ALL STRIPES AGREE THE DEMOCRATIC PLAN WOULD INTENSIFY THE TREND TOWARD A SHORTER AND MORE INTENSE PRIMARY PROCESS. DANTE SCALA HEADS THE CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE POLITICS AND CIVIC LIFE AT SAINT ANSELM?S COLLEGE.
big states like california, new york and ohio can start very close to iowa and New Hampshire. So I think we?re going to see continued movemt toward a defacto national primary, where New Hampshire and iowa still have a role but this thing will be wrapped up a lot earlier than before.
IN FACT SCALA PREDICTS THE 2004 PRIMARIES COULD BE DECIDED IN EARLY FEBRUARY, JUST A WEEK AFTER THE NEW HAMSPHIRE PRIMARY. BY CONTRAST, THE 1996 AND 2000 RACES WEREN?T CLINCHED UNTIL MID-MARCH. SCALA IS NOT CONVINCED A SO-CALLED ?FRONTLOADED? PRIMARY SCHEDULE HURTS NEW HAMPSHIRE. BUT HE SAYS A SHORTER PRIMARY SEASON WOULD TIP THE SCALES TOWARD THE CANDIDATES WITH THE MOST MONEY AND THE BIGGEST ORGANIZATIONS.
005 123 it favors the candidate who?s able to win the invisible primary, that is all the work that goes in before any primary votes are cast. // It also helps party elites. Because rank and file voters wont have much time to look at candidates. So the elite will have a stronger hand in choosing which candidates voters can choose from.
IF THE PARTIES DON?T LIKE THE DATE NEW HAMPSHIRE SETS FOR ITS 2004 PRIMARY, THEY COULD REFUSE TO SEAT A PORTION OF THE STATE?S DELEGATES. THAT WOULD DIMINISH, AND SOME ARGUE DESTROY, THE IMPACT OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY. BUT THE MAN WHO WOULD END UP IN THE CENTER OF ANY BATTLE OVER PRIMARY DATES SEEMS UNFAZED. NEW HAMPSHIRE SECRETARY OF STATE BILL GARDNER SAYS THE RULE HE CARES ABOUT IS NEW HAMPSHIRE LAW, AND THAT SAYS NEW HAMPSHIRE GOES FIRST.
007 129 our law says we?d be at least a week ahead of any state with a similar election. And that?s what we?ll do.
STATES HAVE TRADITIONALLY HAD THE POWER TO DETERMINE THEIR OWN PRIMARY DATES. IN FACT, THEY?VE PLAYED A MAJOR ROLE IN THE DRIVE FOR EARLIER PRIMARIES, AS LATER STATES LEAPFROG AHEAD OF EARLIER ONES TO GRAB A MORE PROMINENT PLACE IN THE VOTING PROCESS. NEW HAMPSHIRITES OF BOTH POLITICAL STRIPES HOPE THE NATIONAL PARTIES WILL COME TOGETHER - AND FIND A WAY TO SLOW DOWN THE PRIMARY SCHEDULE. BUT THE PARTIES THEMSELVES DON?T SOUND OPTIMISTIC. DNC MEMBER JIM ROOSEVELT SAYS HE DOESN?T SEE ANY IMMEDIATE PROCESS FOR BRINGING THE TWO SIDES TOGETHER. A SPOKESMAN FOR THE RNC SAYS IF THE PARTIES ARE DISCUSSING THE PRIMARY SCHEDULE, HE?S NOT AWARE OF IT. FOR NHPR NEWS, I?M
