The question Tuesday was not whether Barack Obama would win the New Hampshire primary, but how big his victory would be.
Now Democrats in the state are trying to piece together how Hillary Clinton achieved her dramatic come-from-behind victory.
New Hampshire Public Radio’s Dan Gorenstein reports that emotional moments, polls and Obama campaign mistakes all played a roll.
While pundits were surprised that Hillary Clinton won the primary, stay-at-home mom Trisha Swanger from Merrimack wasn’t.
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1:29 a lot can happen in New Hampshire in five days.
Swanger- who backs Obama- says reporters and pollsters didn’t pick up on the shift to Clinton because they were looking for information in the wrong place.
2:10 you don’t do playgroup, and PTA meetings and go to the dump. That’s where you go get the good information in NH. I could tell from the women that I talk to, after H. came out with that emotional outburst, they were really swayed by that. Obviously I wasn’t. and I told them I was disappointed, but it did sway a number of people.
Gender definitely had a hand in Tuesday night’s outcome.
Women, who made up the majority of Democratic primary voters, broke for Clinton by 13 points.
But it’s too easy to say all those women went with Clinton because she got a little emotional.
On Friday, a life time before that moment, Joanna Henderson said that she just wanted to vote for Clinton out of a sense of solidarity.
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TAPE: I understand, I am a woman like H. I played the game, paid my dues, stood behind the right man, and it’s her turn. And now the rug is being pulled out from under her, and I feel for her.
But over the weekend Henderson decided Barack Obama was the most electable.
So she voted with her head and supported him.
TAPE: and I came out and I was greeted by a bank of H. signs, and all these attractive women holding H. signs and I thought, ‘oh my god!’ And then when I started watching the news, and she was coming ahead, I quietly asked for her forgiveness for not voting for her.
State Senator Maggie Hassan doesn’t discount that a number of female voters ultimately decided to back the woman in the race.
But she argues that’s not why Clinton won.
She says the candidate reframed the choice during Saturday night’s debate.
TAPE: people I think began to say to themselves I started asking myself, as much as I loved Obama’s speech, what did it say? And what would it mean as governance? So I think that really resonated with folks.
Obama Steering Committee member Meg Hirshberg doesn’t think Clinton’s claim that she’s more experienced had anything to do with the outcome.
She thinks the tracking polls showing Obama with a large 9-10 point lead gave supporters a false sense of security.
TAPE: the polls, were, they were not even close. So I am sure that influenced turnout for Barack and where people decided to put their vote strategically.
In addition to polls, Hirshberg says the Clinton campaign mailed a letter over the weekend attacking Obama’s record on abortion.
Obama responded with a recorded message with a Planned Parenthood official defending his record.
Couple that letter with Clinton’s emotional moment, and Hirshberg says it’s clear what the Clinton camp was trying to do.
TAPE: they were down to the wire. They knew a huge loss would be devastating for their campaign. They targeted women’s votes.
Clinton may have won the New Hampshire Primary, but Barack Obama also lost it.
Both rivals bragged about their get-out-the-vote operations.
The Obama campaign made a decision to dispatch volunteers to make sure their hard-core supporters went to the polls.
But few went to the polling places to hold signs so the campaign had little influence on the many voters who said they wouldn’t make up their minds until they go to the polls. .
A couple of Obama Steering Committee members called that decision a huge error.
With the first two contests over now, backers from both campaigns say they don’t expect this race to end anytime soon.
For NHPR News, I’m DG.
NHPR's bias is showing. NHPR's much publicized effort to not report exit polls seems hypocritical in light of all the reporting you did concerning Obama's lead in the pre-voting polls on primary day. How many Obama supporters switched their vote at the last minute because they were led to believe by NHPR that Obama already had it sewn up? Could this have changed the results? I know several independents who switched to McCain, or supported fringe Democrats as a "make a statement" vote. How could these polls have been so wrong while others were so right? What polls? Who paid for them? Who decided which polls to air? NHPR's continuously gushy follow-up pieces analyzing Clinton's "victory" in what is actually a delegate-tie seems to show NHPR's institutional bias for the institutional or machine democrat, i.e., that candidate with the most money and power. This is another example of how the institutional powers, including media, manipulate the system to deliver the results they want. Independents believe for the moment that the republicans in Washington need to be replaced. However as the most polarizing candidate possible, do you really think Hillary is electable? There are not enough liberal democrat voters to carry Hillary's day without the independents. Will enough of the 60% of Dems and independents who voted for non-Hillaries support her nomination vs. a moderate republican or 3rd party candidate? I don't think so. Ever hear of Al Gore or John Kerry? Go ask Rush Limbaugh who he wants to rant against all year. NHPR should curb your giddy desire to be the left version of FOX news. Us great unwashed masses are manipulated enough! This election seems to be the rare opportunity when we actually have a chance to choose politicians we want instead of being forced to pick the lesser of two evils come November.