Epping and Newmarket: Presidential Primary Bellwethers

By Dan Gorenstein on Monday, January 7, 2008.

Wanna know who is going to win New Hampshire’s presidential primary?

You could do worse than follow the resuls as they come in from the towns of Epping and Newmarket.

For the past half century as these towns have voted, so has the rest of the state.

New Hampshire Public Radio’s Dan Gorenstein reports.

DG: In Epping, it’s the Democrats who have constantly voted with the states majority; in Newmarket its the Republicans.

T.18
TAPE: 2:16 we just know what we’re doing. That’s all. (laughter)

T.8
TAPE: :59...just everyday people, and it’s usually...and the average is usually the one that wins out in the end.

DG: Elaine Gatchell and Joe Denocour are just guessing why the towns have had such a surprising run.

Mark Valone of Epping speculates his granddad Thomas Fecto had something to do with it.

From the 1930’s to the 1970’s, Thomas Fecto ran a popular, little country store in town.

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Mark Valone: 8:28...he could speak English well, and a lot of people in town couldn’t. And so a lot of them worked in the shoe shops, or the brick yard or on the farm, those were his constituents.

Not only did Fecto have constituents, but Secretary of State Bill Gardner says the man had a national reputation in Democratic circles.

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Bill Gardner: :00...Anytime, any Democrat was going to do anything in Epping, Tom Vecto would be the person they would talk to first....

Bill Gardner: :53 he was Mr. Democrat of Epping.

But Fecto hasn’t been around for the past 3-4 races.

But Valone- who is also town party chair- has a thought about the more recent contests too.

He believes geography has something to do with Epping’s stellar record.

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Mark Valone: 4:32...We are halfway between Portsmouth and Manchester. And the Portsmouth Democrats are much more liberal than the Manchester, and we are sort of a mix. So I think we are a good smattering of everybody who makes up the party just in this small town.

DG: The citizens in the neighboring town of Newmarket (pause) have been equally successful in picking the Republican winner.

While the streak here is harder to explain, it may be more impressive because historically Republicans make up such an extremely small voting bloc in town.

In 1952, when the record started, only 185 of them voted out of more than 1700 ballots cast.

But this tiny population has somehow time and time again captured the prevailing attitudes of state Republicans.

Even so, Jay Dougal says GOP candidates never stop in.

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Jay Dougal: 1:45...John Edwards was here. Hillary stopped by for tea... as far as specific individuals, it’s kind of funny, I don’t recall any Republicans coming through Newmarket.

DG: These GOP candidates aren’t the only ones who don’t know about Newmarket’s impressive track record.

Most locals are ignorant of it too.

When residents like Cynthia Harris do learn about it though, they are instantly proud.

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DG and Cynthia Harris: 19:19 (do you think the trend is going to continue) I hope so. Now I’m thinking you are jinxing it. I’m getting nervous. (you think I’m jinxing it) now we are going to know about it, and feel oh no. (are you feeling the pressure) YES! (laughter)

DG: Harris has a right to be concerned.

In just the past 20 years, 52 other bellwether cities and towns have dropped by the wayside.

And any statistician will tell you, Epping and Newmarket will go the same way...eventually.

With tight races on both sides of the ballot today, Secretary of State Bill Gardner is just going to relish the fact a streak that’s lasted through 14 primaries.

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4:34 I don’t know whether they will keep their record. They’ve been pretty good at keeping it, so I wouldn’t want to bet too much against it.

For NHPR News, I’m DG.