Barack Obama is arguably the first African American candidate to have a real shot of winning the presidency.
But to get to the White House, the Illinois Senator first must do well in New Hampshire and Iowa, the third and fifth whitest states in the land.
New Hampshire Public Radio’s Dan Gorenstein reports it’s not clear if Obama’s ethnicity is an advantage, a disadvantage or completely irrelevant.
Is it going to be hard for Barack Obama to win over white voters in New Hampshire?
University of Chicago Political Science Professor Michael Dawson chuckles a little when he hears the question.
:56... there might be a mild advantage for a candidate like O...
Dawson knows the third whitest state in the country has plenty of residents who have never even shaken the hand of a black man.
But Dawson says that actually could be a good thing for Obama.
....once the threshold of AA population rises above 5-6%, it becomes much more difficult for black candidates to win. And the most straightforward explanation is once the black population is seen as a threat or player, ethnicity kicks into a high degree.
New Hampshire will be a case study for Dawson’s statistics.
Most white voters I spoke to at Obama events said they didn’t think the candidate’s race matters at all.
T.144
5:31 we’ve seen O. about three times now and the people seem to give him a nice warm reception...
David Pierce went to a Michelle Obama house party.
He says as long as the candidates talk about Iraq and healthcare, New Hampshire voters will listen.
T.144
1:59...I would be incredibly proud to vote for the first black president...but really I want to vote for him b/c of his stances on the issues and I think he would be a tremendous leader.
But talk to voters of color in this state and you get a different story.
Discrimination, says New Fellowship Baptist Church Pastor Bertha Perkins is always an issue.
6:51 I believe that any person of color who seeks public office...if you are Hispanic, African American...Asian, any ethnic person of color will run into color.
While that might mean a few less votes, as far as Perkins is concerned, color’s not what’s holding Obama back.
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:58 ......he represents America that we see today. He is bi-racial....he comes in with a tremendous advantage b/c of his own diversity and what he brings. Intelligent, educated, informed mate....I don’t think his race is his major problem....3:41 I think it’s perceived inexperience
Obama doesn’t think it’s a major problem either.
T.191
2:10...if they feel confident I can provide that leadership, then we will do fine. That has been my experience in my home state in Illinois. 12% African American...people were skeptical that I could get votes downstate in rural areas. We ended up wining the primary by 20 points, the general by 30 points. So I think there is a decency to the American people and NH voters that won’t make this a barrier.
Sfx: traffic
52 year old Ken Beale sits on a bench in front of the statehouse, waiting for Obama to speak.
Beale wonders about the decency of his own group of what he calls hardheaded friends.
T.182
1:38 ...they just say that black person doesn’t need to be in office. They shouldn’t even try to be in office. It’s not for a black person, it’s for a white person.
T.182
7:16 (if Obama was elected president what impact would it have on your hardheaded friends) (laughter) there would be a lot of impact...they will probably, what’s the easiest thing to put it, they would probably go nuts....there goes America, right down the tubes.’
That sentiment doesn’t surprise Iverson Alseed.
He’s heard it in New Hampshire before.
Alseed, originally from Haiti, has lived in the state the past 15 years.
He worries that a number of the white voters he knows openly question whether the country is ready for a black president.
Voters like his girlfriend.
T.196
1:08...one of the statements she made is that she doesn’t believe O. will make it as President so she might as well vote for someone else, such as Hillary Clinton.
21:18 that could come into play for a lot of whites. That doesn’t suggest they are opposed to a black candidate....
Harvard Sociologist William Julius Wilson.
Wilson is an unpaid advisor to the Obama campaign.
....think I want my vote to matter and I don’t think this person can be elected. Some whites feel that way and even some blacks have expressed the same view. But I am not convinced that they represent a...majority of voters.
Wilson, who’s written on race and politics, says Obama’s success doesn’t depend on the minority population in the whitest state- Vermont- or the most diverse- Hawaii.
Message, message, message, that’s what really matters.
He explains that’s why Jesse Jackson won the 1988 Michigan Democratic Caucus, Obama won his Senate seat, and Deval Patrick became the governor of Massachusetts.
1:58... And for all of these reasons I am not all that concerned about race being an issue for O. in these largely white states.
University of Chicago Political Science Professor Michael Dawson agrees with Wilson to a point.
In 2007 it is easier for a candidate of color to get elected than at any other time.
But Dawson sees big barriers ahead.
He points to research that shows white voters tend to believe black candidates are more radical or liberal than they really are.
Using sports as an example, Dawson also says that white people don’t give black people as much credit in positions that require high levels of skill and cognitive ability.
3:44...when I was in graduate school, I kept hearing about how Bird and McHale were so smart and worked so hard. And that Jordan and Magic were just natural athletes.
But possibly, he says, the most difficult thing to overcome: the unconscious.
1:52 as human beings the way our brains are wired, we can be quite tolerant and open-minded and sincere...but that we...react negatively with the biggest affects being shown of white voters toward African Americans.
Put that together with Clinton’s commanding lead and Dawson says this isn’t Obama’s year.
28:33...I do think, particularly in a close race, there are enough voters who feel uncomfortable to elect a black candidate...I hope I am wrong. And probably for the first time I can foresee that I am wrong, but I don’t think I am.
Regardless of Obama’s fate, George Mason University Professor Roger Wilkins says Obama’s candidacy alone forces people to think about race.
10:24...People have told me...‘this isn’t like J. or Sharpton, this is a real candidate. And it’s made me stop and think. And do I really believe that everyone is equal....I have heard that a number of times...and I think a lot of people really try to be honest with themselves, so there is, I think a big reexamination going on.
For NHPR News, I’m DG.
