The Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire is unsettled. A few months ago, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney could look at the more reliable polls with some satisfaction. Now, the picture is not so clear. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani seems to have gained ground as have Arizona senator John McCain and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee.
This next installment of Primary Place, our series that follows the town of Exeter, focuses on the changing views among Republicans and what a Giuliani victory might do to GOP solidarity.
New Hampshire Public Radio’s Jon Greenberg has our report.
Take your typical backyard compost heap, scale it up by about a factor of a thousand, or maybe ten thousand, and you have an idea of how Bob Kelly makes a living.
CUT 1002 :40 We are in the business of producing an organic topsoil and garden product
We stand in the middle of Bob’s dirt farm – a large open area with 9 or 10 towering cones of rich brown loam. Two huge front-end loaders tend the piles constantly, digging in and turning the dirt, sending up clouds of smoke from the decaying organic matter.
Several months ago, Bob thought Mitt Romney was a pretty interesting candidate. He liked his business background, that he didn’t come out of the Washington political culture. But some things began to rub him the wrong way.
Instead of being a worker bee businessman, he’s sort of a CEO businessman, so you never really quite know what his angle is. I mean, I’m a CEO but I have fairly small company. I’d like someone who can talk to me who at least can make me feel like they know what my issues are.
In contrast, there was Rudy Giuliani.
12:09 I think Rudy Giuliani for one has been able to dial himself down to everyman level and connect And maybe that’s superficial.. it's hard to tell. It’s hard to tell any more what someone’s real platform is because a lot of them change so often so you have to in some regards go on feel.
When Giuliani spoke at Exeter’s town hall, a writer on a local blog created for the primary, labeled him Uncle Rudy and talked about his quote - common sense wisdom.
But for some Exeter Republicans, the telling quality about Giuliani isn’t his street savvy. It’s his relatively moderate positions on abortion and civil unions. Here in New Hampshire, that’s a good fit with Republicans who like to keep government out of peoples’ personal lives. How much discomfort those attitudes cause for social conservatives is an open question. Joe Klempa is a 45-year-old systems engineer at the Seabrook nuclear power plant . He describes himself as a pro-life Catholic. If the election were held today, Joe says, he would choose the former governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee.
12:09 He's morally there. He can't be challenged on his personal life the way Giuliani can be. He's not gonna be challenged with waffling, like Romney.
But what if Giuliani won the nomination? Joe would vote for him. He fears that talk by religious conservatives about sitting out the election or backing a third-party candidate would cost Republicans the White House.
If it divides the religious right or the gun control folks, it would be disastrous for the Republicans and it would lead to the Democrat getting elected.
Joe isn’t the only Exeter Republican with such fears.
SFX – Kitchen sounds
Chris Moutis owns the Townlyne Grill, a trendy restaurant located, appropriately enough, on Exeter’s town line. A Giuliani supporter, he feels that if Giuliani is the nominee , the religious conservatives have no right to complain.
7:04 I've sucked it up and voted for people that I don't agree with at all, Now, if it turns out this way regarding social conservatives in this particular election and they have to suck it up -- they have to suck it up.
Still, I could not find one Republican who is considering staying home if Giuliani is the nominee. On this night, members of the fundamentalist The Father’s Family Church of Exeter have driven to Concord to attend an event held by Christians United for Israel.
SFX – music or podium speaker welcome
Holly Colcord is up in the balcony with other members of her Exeter church. For Holly, her choice of presidential candidate is guided by one issue and, based on that, one candidate stands out.
CUT 1:19 I like McCain. The abortion issue is big with me. I like a pro-life choice. He’s strongest in that area.
But -- ask Holly what she would do if Giuliani gets the nomination.
CUT: I’ll still vote Republican because overall, the strength, even for that issue, is on the Republican side.
Holly’s brother is pastor of The Father’s Family Church. He says his faith tells him to support Mike Huckabee because Huckabee is born again. But he also says, if Giuliani is the nominee, that would be the hand of God at work. And he would vote for him.
For NPR News, I’m Jon Greenberg.
Hello
I enjoyed all the political news and stories on WEVO but has a question about polling data. There is increasing evidence that polling data and results may be invalid because of the increasing number of people without landline telephones. In health care there is increasing evidence that telephone polling surveys regarding health issues may be missing certain specific populations. I wonder if any of the polling experts believe that there may be similar changes in political polls.
Data from the 2006 National Center for Health Statistics' National Health Interview Survey which is conducted using in person interviews indicate that 25% of 18-29 year olds and 32% of low income young adults live in households with only wireless telephones.
The number of cellphone-only users rises to almost 33% among young adults ages 25-29.
In addition, it is well known that many people use caller ID to screen all calls and do not answer unknown telephone numbers or calls identified as survey.
Given these 'facts' can anyone comment on how polling companies account for this large population that cannot be included in telephone polls, whether by choice or by lack of access.
I believe this has become more important as it appears that publicized poll results actually drive people's choice of candidate as people want to support a candidate that 'has a chancce' and not 'waste their vote'and poll standings certainly influences money raising and news coverage.
Thank you
Rich Friedman