When Hillary Clinton returns to New Hampshire today, it will on the heels of polls that find her the strong favorite among local Democrats.
While frontrunner status comes with some advantages, in New Hampshire, leading the pack in the fall doesn't always translate into a win on primary day.
New Hampshire Public Radio's Josh Rogers has more.
If the latest numbers are to be believed, Hillary Clinton is on her way to a rout.
A Marist College poll released Sunday shows the New York Senator outpacing her nearest rival, Illinois Senator Barack Obama, by 21 points.
But local leads that large can, and have been known to, evaporate.
"This is actually a fairly typical thing in New Hampshire."
That's UNH pollster Andy Smith. He cites Howard Dean's free-fall loss to John Kerry in 2004 as just the most recent example of a local phenomenon that struck on both sides of the ballot.
"Walter Mondale was leading by large amounts through all of 1983, and loses to Gary Hart. In 2000, George W. Bush was leading throughout the fall, then loses convincingly to John McCain. Bob Dole was leading Pat Buchanan by wide margins, and then loses by a point in 1996."
Smith adds that such dramatic turnabouts tend to require major miscues by the frontrunner, a big surge by a rival, or both - any of which could happen.
But as Smith's UNH colleague Dante Scala notes, with the primary at least two months off, Hillary Clinton seems better poised for victory at this point in the campaign than either of the last two Democratic primary winners.
"You think of John Kerry in 2003 or Al Gore in 1999, their campaigns spent months of the year before the primary basically stumbling around, not getting any respect from activists, not getting much respect from the media. What's striking about Clinton's campaign to date in New Hampshire is that there's really been none of that."
What there has been is plenty of discipline. Clinton has, from the start, enjoyed strong backing from key Democrats across the state, and has reached out in particular to women, a vital Democratic constituency.
Clinton's campaign is also perhaps the most tightly controlled of any candidate in the race. Clinton rarely allows open questioning by the press, and her staff isn't shy about trying to influence news coverage.
According to Clinton's local co-chairman Bill Shaheen, the more unmediated time the candidate gets with local voters, the better.
"People in New Hampshire are now seeing her up close and personal, and they're coming to the conclusion that she's not what the media represents her to be, that she is warm, intelligent, capable and experienced. There's a certain media myth that the Republicans have hammered away at her for the last 15 years, and that is now evaporating."
For now, Shaheen says, the Clinton camp's main focus is on being the best it can be. To do that, he adds, means ignoring high poll numbers and reaching out to the 80 percent of all Democrats who say they're still not definitely committed to other candidates.
And from the candidate herself, voters should expect plenty more of this:
"I have so many friends, and I'm making new friends every single day. But I know we have a long way to go before anybody ever shows up to vote. So I'm going to keep coming back, time and time again, and keep working hard and hopefully earn your votes."
Hillary Clinton is slated to appear in Manchester and Salem later today, where she'll focus on issues important to women, and what her campaign is calling "the decisive role women can play in shaping this election."
For NHPR News, I'm Josh Rogers.
