Most Extreme Elimination Challenge

Have you ever seen that Japanese television program run in translation on the "Spike" network? That's my working metaphor for the New Hampshire primary tomorrow: "Most Extreme Elimination Challenge." Indeed, the challenge for several of the candidates will be to avoid "elimination."

All the town meetings, all the ads, all the interviews are over. What matters tomorrow is organization, turnout, undecided voters, and the final count. So far since suppertime tonight, Howard Dean, John Kerry, Joe Lieberman, and John Edwards have checked in with recorded phone calls. Tomorrow there'll be follow-ups to see that we've gone to the polls, to ask if we need a ride, to inquire if we'd like to stand at the polling place with a sign. All this in an effort to obey Kenny Blankenship's exhortation: "don't get eliminated!"

In the end, despite all the work by dedicated campaigners, one or two candidates will effectively be "eliminated." They say three tickets get punched out of Iowa, and two out of New Hampshire. Still, depending on the results, there could be three remaining viable candidates after tomorrow.

All indications are that John Kerry will win, and win convincingly. He has a commanding lead in the polls, and has run a good campaign this last week, keeping his focus on George Bush. He has the Shaheen organization to help get out the vote, has plenty of money in the bank, and has the advantage of attracting those voters who simply want to go with a winner.

Howard Dean looks good for second. He's bounced back from his Iowa disappointment (and his primal scream), is still drawing great crowds, and also has the dough. The question that remains is whether his organization can get out the vote in New Hampshire better than they did in Iowa. If Dean finishes third (unlikely), he's toast. With two thirds, including one in a Vermont neighbor, Howard won't travel well. At the same time, I think Dean has an outside shot at a miracle first. If Kerry's supporters think its in the bag, and if Dean's younger supporters actually vote in huge numbers (college students, for example, rarely are polled), and if before morning some contrary NH voters among his original followers (back when he had the big lead) rediscover that original appeal, or decide he could beat Bush, there might be a surprise.

Third will be the most interesting race with Edwards, Clark, and Lieberman all making a play. Edwards, with his second in Iowa, is not quite in a "must third" situation. Heading to South Carolina, he might survive a fourth-place finish in New Hampshire. Even with a fourth, he'll be around through February 3rd. He has been drawing huge enthusiastic crowds. He has great favorability ratings, and seems always to be named among the two (or more) still being considered by undecideds. He is statistically even with Clark, and leads Lieberman by a couple of points. I think it's not really that close. He'll finish a clear third.

Failing a third, Clark will fold. He'll have no excuse for a fourth or fifth. He skipped Iowa to concentrate and do well in New Hampshire. But, he had a poor debate performance, and is showing some wear on the stump. His best chance is the voters he seems to attract. My sense from seeing him in person on several occasions is that the crowds are older than most, and with a higher proportion of veterans. These people, more than younger supporters, do tend to vote.

Likewise Joe Lieberman. Without at least a third, Lieberman's campaign will collapse. The candidate did have a good debate, and has made some movement in the polls. But he started from way down, and both times I've seen Lieberman, the crowds have been, well, polite. They are clearly not enthused, or inspired--sort of reflecting the temperament of the candidate. Lieberman's best hope is to attract a lot of independent support, and undecideds. But while there is a chance he could pass Clark for fourth, I doubt he'll get by both Clark and Edwards.

My prediction, then: Clark and Lieberman fail the "Most Extreme Elimination Challenge," and cash in their chips after the New Hampshire Primary.

If I'm right, coming out of New Hampshire there'll be Kerry with two wins, and Dean and Edwards with a second and a third each. But, place and show won't get you many delegates, especially if you're always losing to the same guy. So, if they survive here, South Carolina, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona, and the rest become the next "Most Extreme Elimination Challenge."