The Angry Man Falls Hard

It's possible that the Nagle Axiom was turned on its head by Sen. John Kerry's big victory in tonight's Iowa presidential precinct caucuses. Then again, it just might have been reinforced by the events that unfolded at nearly 2,000 gatherings across this state.
The political law, coined by then-Iowa Democratic Party Chairman David Nagle was simple. The formula to victory in the first-in-the-nation caucuses was to �organize, organize, organize and get hot at the end.
There's no question that Kerry's campaign got white hot at the end, but, to hear reporters talk, Kerry had a weak organization. And, they used words like "unrivaled" to describe former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean's campaign.
So why did Kerry win in a cake walk while Dean went down in flames?
In a word, arrogance.
Iowans were put off by Dean's smug, I'm-more-righteous-than-you, I'm-better-than-anyone-else attitude. And the same goes for his know-it-all groupies. In the end, they simply turned off too many Iowans. So, when it came time for Iowa Democrats to make a choice, they were faced with the annoying Howard Dean; Rep. Dick Gephardt, who was viewed as yesterday's news; Rep. Dennis Kucinich, who never really garnered serious consideration from many Iowans; Sen. John Edwards and Kerry.
Back to the axiom.
If tonight's results reflect a triumph of last-minute momentum over the type of organizational toil that Nagle described, the landscape of the Iowa caucuses are changed forever. In effect, the new campaign strategy will be to treat the state like any other primary.
Only, that's not what happened.
Yes, Kerry and Edwards did get hot at the end and Dean did go ice cold, choking on his on angry message and stumbling badly in the Black and Brown Forum debate.
Yet, the excitement of the final week shouldn't diminish the efforts of Kerry's Iowa staff and volunteers.
I mentioned Kerry's Iowa campaign manager, John Norris, last week. Norris is a top-flight, home-grown Iowa organizer, and he did use all his organizational skills to make sure that the Iowans who support Kerry actually turned out.
My respect for Norris tells me that the Nagle Axiom probably lives on.
What I do know for sure, is that Dean's third-place finish -- 14 points behind Sen. John Edwards and 20 points behind Kerry -- proves another law, the law of physics. What goes up does come down. In this case, it came down in a big hurry, landing with one hell of a crash. It's unlikely The Angry Man can put the pieces together again.
Arrogance, it'll get every time.