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Predicting the finish

Submitted by Chris Martin on Fri, 01/16/2004 - 01:00.

The latest poll (Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby) now has an essentially four-way race. Given the margin of error (+ or - 4.5%), Kerry, Dean, Gephardt, and Edwards are tied at about 20% each.

But, the final Iowa caucus results probably won't be so close. Why? Because in each caucus meeting, a candidate needs to get support from at least 15% of the people in the room to be viable. If supporters of one or more of the four leading candidates don't amount to 15%, they typically need to throw their support to their next favorite candidate. (The polls would be much more useful if they also asked respondents who their next favorite candidate is--sort of an instant run-off poll.) As the Boston Globe said today, "caucus polls are notoriously unreliable."

So, the situation is very volatile, but it is likely that by late Monday night, it won't be a four-way finish. There is still about 13-14% undecided, and another 7-8% from supporters of Kucinich, Clark, and Lieberman who will likely (after stating their initial preference for their low-polling candidate) will have to support a back-up candidate.

The caucus process-- where instead of a secret ballot, the caucus attendees in a room actually have to make a case for their candidates-- means that votes will be consolidated under just a few names.

So, we can be certain not to end in a virtual four-way tie in Iowa on Monday.

Still, with respectable finishes for the leading four candidates, most if not all of the candidates will remain viable into the next state, New Hampshire.

+++++

On the advertising front, the fact that Edwards and Kerry have been behind the pack and less subject to the constant picking on the frontrunners (by both other candidates and the news media) have allowed them to look pretty clean coming into the finish. In fact, Edwards TV and print ads have mimicked early Dean ads that have focused on an upbeat "movement" and the electability of the candidate. Kerry, who seemed almost invisible at times, has finally gotten his ad campaign together, emphasizing his experience in foreign policy, his concern for veterans (a very effective current TV ad has a regular-guy veteran vouching for Kerry), and his concern for the environment and a better energy policy.

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