Whole Lot of Movin' Goin' On

Iowa activists are still making up their minds and, apparently, still changing camps with just four days until the presidential precinct caucuses.

The Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Poll released last night had Howard Dean down to 24 percent with Dick Gephardt and John Kerry tied at 21 percent. The gap was within the margin of error. John Edwards was fourth at 15 percent.

Just to make things more interesting, notes Des Moines Register political columnist David Yepsen, pollster John Zogby says it's a three-way race for more than one reason. Kerry is "surging and he actually led the pack on Monday with 25 percent for the day. Dean had his worst single day with only 18 percent."

The trend in recent elections is that more and more races are decided in the final 72 hours. There's a growing indication the caucuses, which once appeared to be a certain victory for Dean, will be no exception. If I were one of his advisers -- and, no doubt, both of us are glad I'm not -- I'd be telling him to cancel his Sunday trip to Georgia to schmooze with former President Jimmy Carter. No one knows the importance of Iowa more than Carter so, frankly, I would be surprised if he isn't telling Dean to stay in Iowa.

Anyway, the Iowa Democratic Party has asked media outlets not to report the results of their entrance polls on Monday night until the caucuses are going at least 30 minutes. The concern is that activists who hear results of the polls might change their support. You wouldn't think that could happen, but activists' continued volatility make that a real possibility and the state party leadership is to be commended for taking that step.