Exceeding Expectations

I didn't believe it until today -- and I'm still not entirely convinced -- but Sen. John Edwards' presidential campaign in Iowa just might be surging. If so, he couldn't have picked a better time. You always want your campaign to peak on Election Day, and with the Jan. 19 caucuses just around the corner that could be exactly what's happening with Edwards.
The Des Moines Register endorsed his campaign on Sunday. He had a strong showing at the Iowa Brown and Black Forum on Sunday night. And people are talking about him.
There's buzz about the guy just at the time you want people talking. And there's open speculation among pros that I know that Rep. Dick Gephardt could finish third, maybe fourth now. Though his campaign might make a last stand in Michigan even if he finishes second to presumptive front-runner Howard Dean, a third- or fourth-place finish would be absolute, certain death to his candidacy.
Does Dean hear footsteps? No doubt. His campaign is pouring even more money in TV ads all across the state right now. If the media buys became general knowledge, Dean's staff would say they're just playing it safe or that they'd planned to buy extra time all along. Maybe so. But it's far more plausible that those folks are looking at the tracking polls here in Iowa and they don't like what they see, that is, Edwards and Kerry moving up and Dean stalled or even sliding.
One saving grace for Dean: If Edwards and Kerry are moving up, it could be at Gephardt's expense. The result would be three campaign knotted behind Dean. Just as likely, the double-digit number of "undecideds" are starting to decide and they're going to the two senators' camps. There race also remains fluid, and people who have thought they liked Dean may be rethinking that position.
If this trend is happening, you could see a situation where Dean limps through Iowa, Edwards finishes stronger than expected -- even if he finishes third -- and the stories coming out of Iowa are all about how Edwards has exceeded expectations.
That's because, in the end, Iowa is all about exceeding expectations. And Dean is now in a position, like Gephardt, where those expectations are very, very high.