Gephardt's Transformation

Now that Wesley Clark and Joe Lieberman have decided to skip out on Iowa, many assume it's just a battle between Vermont's Howard Dean and Missouri's Dick Gephardt. But, a third place finish (and perhaps even a close fourth) could be enough to sustain a candidacy. Something worth considering: the last time Gephardt was running in the Iowa caucus was 1988. Gephardt finished first with 31.3%, Paul Simon (remember the Illinois Senator who wore bow ties?) was second with 26.7%, and Michael Dukakis, the eventual nominee, was third with 22.2%. Then, there was a big fall-off with Jesse Jackson fourth at 8.8%.

Where will it end in January 19, 2004?

On the advertising front, Gephardt is making some real progress, and could finish first again and become more appealing outside of the Midwest as he crafts a more solid image of himself. His two ads in heavy rotation sound a lot more progressive on the economy and agriculture than one might expect from this often bland long-time member of Congress. Howard Dean is the one setting the pace on the progressive tone of the Democrats (Lieberman marches to a different drummer in this regard), but as The Nation magazine argued recently, the legacy of Sen. Paul Wellstone figures most prominently in all of the progressive rhetoric. (In fact, Dean just rips off good Wellstone lines.) Gephardt now seems to be tuned into these progressive themes.

The first Gephardt ad shows him sitting at a table in a cramped kitchen with Olin and Barb Clayton. Gephardt listens while Olin says "After NAFTA, I lost two good jobs. They closed the plants and the jobs went to Mexico." Barb: "We've had to move three times, uproot our family. And now we're worried we'll have to do it again."

The ad cuts to a shot of Gephardt, in a plaid shirt, listening to the Claytons while a voiceover (echoed subtly by on-screen text) says "Democratic leader Dick Gephardt led the fight against NAFTA. As president, Dick Gephardt will fight for American jobs. He knows when the rules are fair, American workers win."

Then, cut to a voiceover by Gephardt, where he gives another one of those message approval tags that James Farrell recently wrote about: "I'm Dick Gephardt, and I approved this message because I want to stop George Bush and fight for America's middle class."

The second Gephardt ad is beautiful aesthetically. In a long shot, we see Gephardt in a red shirt as he walks with a farmer. The Gephardt voiceover says "for years, I've led the struggle for family farmers, for strong farm prices, for expanded markets for ethanol." [OK, the ethanol mention isn't exactly a sign of progressive politics, but you just can't knock this corn-derived gasoline additive in Iowa.]

On camera, Gephardt continues, and addresses the camera: "I've always opposed corporate hog lots and supported a ban for packer ownership of cattle." The video cuts to a grocery store meat counter, where a mother and two children are shopping. Gephardt's voice continues: "Tom Harkin [Iowa's Democrat Senator] and I fought for country of origin labeling, so Americans can know where their meat and farm products come from." I think this is a great point that taps into the nation's increasing concern about food safety. [Read Fast Food Nation and you may never want to again eat ground beef, which can have a meat and fat mixture originating from a number of different nations.] And, this is a point where Bush is clearly on the opposite side, since he is working hard to kill country of origin labeling.

Gephardt concludes, walking in his red shirt toward the camera in a gorgeous sweeping shot on a gravel country road: "I'm Dick Gephardt, and I approved of this message because I want to stop George Bush and the corporate agribusiness interests. As president, I'll fight for America's family farmers."

You don't have to be a farmer (and note to the national press: only about 2 percent of Iowans actually are farmers) to get what Gephardt is saying about farm policy. Who doesn't support safe food and family farms? And, who hasn't seen jobs exported from the U.S. in the race to the bottom for low global wages?

These two Gephardt ads have been on TV more frequently than those of any other candidates, although Edwards and Kerry and Dean are also present. Gephardt may overdo it a bit on the "fighter" dialogue, but after what Democrats went through in 2000, they're looking for a candidate who will take decisive stances on issues.