New Hampshire's Primary continues to face threats from other states wanting to have an early say in the 2008 election.
Many states, including California, Texas, and New Jersey have announced they want to move their primaries to within 2 weeks of New Hampshire's.
With all these newcomers trying to push their way near the front of the line, they could cast a big shadow on New Hampshire's first in the nation status.
In one sense it doesn’t matter when California or any other state sets its 2008 Presidential primary.
New Hampshire law requires the Secretary of State schedule this state’s primary seven days before any other state's "similar event".
Still, when faced with the choice of wooing voters in California or New York, candidates may be tempted to spend less time and money in New Hampshire.
Morgan Felchner of Campaigns and Elections Magazine says she doesn't think that will happen.
She believes not matter how close those bigger state’s get, New Hampshire is still unique.
it still has a tremendous amount of importance even with these other primaries coming up because nh's on a day by itself. if someone can...go into february 5th with a lot of momentum from nh they have a better chance in ny, california and all those other states.
But a candidate might be better served by minimizing his or her efforts in New Hampshire, to better concentrate on those states with more delegates.
These states offer candidates huge voter populations, and big media centers like New York City, Chicago, and Los Angeles.
Professor Stephen Hess at George Washington University has written several books on politics and the press.
He says he's seen a few candidates skip New Hampshire and Iowa, and try to win without them.
He says there's always been a problem with this approach, and it involves the press.
the past history is anyone who has decided to take a bye in one of these early states has regretted it if its nh, or if its iowa, `and so forth...because that's the way the political press corp runs. they'll be in nh, they won't necessarily be in california.
But that was in the old days….back when there was something called Super Tuesday which happened in early March.
The game may be shifting.
And it’s not clear how the press corps may react.
As more states pack themselves into the front of the primary calendar, a candidate in 2008 or 2012 or later might decide that it's worth the gamble to skip New Hampshire.
After all, the state offers relatively few votes.
And candidates could figure that with the internet, cell phones and other instant communication, they no longer need to come to New Hampshire for a house party or a town meeting.
Dr. Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia has written several books on presidential politics.
He also believes the front loading of primaries into early February won't dilute New Hampshire's importance.
In fact, Sabato thinks the many races on February 5th will actually strengthen New Hampshire.
nh could propel someone almost automatically into the nomination. if the victory in nh on either side of the fence is fairly substantial or a surprise that generates headlines for day after day prior to this proto national primary, there simply won't be time for other candidates to recover.
If New Hampshire gets more important in presidential politics, voters still could lose something by having so many primaries in early February.
Former Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis was the Democratic presidential nominee in 1988.
He’s now a visiting professor at U-C-L-A in Los Angeles.
Dukakis says he doesn't think serious candidates for president can spend as much time in New Hampshire as they once did.
He says California alone is just too big.
i mean there's no way you can campaign seriously in california if its going to be on the 5th of february and devote the same kind of time and effort that we all have tended to devote to iowa and nh. which doesn't mean that either of these states are going to be ignored, but....you know there are 37 million people out here. and its a huge state. its an important state.
And that’s just California.
Add in New York, New Jersey, Texas and others, and you come up with a significant percentage of the nation’s voting population.
So far this year, several candidates have already made their way to New Hampshire.
In fact, they seem to be coming earlier than ever, and just as often as in years past.
