The latest estimate of New Hampshire's population shows it will be growing more slowly over the next few decades than it has in the past.
It also shows the population is aging, and that the number of middle aged people in coming years will likely decline.
New Hampshire Public Radio's David Darman has more.
New Hampshire's Office of Energy and Planning, or O-E-P estimates the state's population will grow to more than 1.5 million by 2030.
But Tom Duffy at OEP says some age groups, won't be part of that growth... notably the group that ranges from 35 to 55 years old.
Those are the years when people are their most economically productive.
Duffy says their numbers will decline from 405 thousand in 2000 to 350 thousand thirty years later.
so we do have two things going on here. the natural progression of a smaller cohort called the Xers. and the fact that they do not tend to, or have not tended to migrate to nh.
New Hampshire's economy has long depended on migrants.
The typical migrant is the young family coming north because of high living standards.,
But migration to the state has been slowing down, and today's young workers, are in many cases leaving the state, not coming.
Peter Francese, a demographer for New England Economic Partnership, says these workers would be highly skilled, well paid employees 20 years out.
And he says their future absence is already worrisome.
if the work force growth slows, and there are already appearing, worker shortages in various occupations and places, employers will just have incentives to go elsewhere, to build plants elsewhere or expand elsewhere. and not only elsewhere in the country but elsewhere in the world.
And one of the reasons for the slow growth, says Francese, is housing is so expensive.
so we've got to deal with this fundamental problem of there's no incentive for a small town to permit the construction of two and three hundred small, affordable dwelling units available to young people. ....because they bear the costs. but there's very powerful incentives for them to allow nothing but age restricted housing.
Housing constructed for people who are 55 or older has become quite popular over the last decade.
But critics say it can frequently crowd out the affordable developments that could harbor families with children.
A couple of communities in the southern part of the state have already begun to limit their growth.
Salem officials have decided to cap them to no more than 120 units a year.
Derry is limiting them to 3 percent of all housing units.
David Preece, the Director of the Southern New Hampshire planning commission says he thinks there's room for these kinds of developments, and a sufficient supply of affordable housing.
developers can develop affordable housing but they've got to have the density in order to do that. and that density should be in areas where, you know, families and individuals can walk to schools and to the town areas, the village areas. they don't have to get in their cars. we just have to reframe or revision our whole perspective of planning.
A change in development philosophy may not come soon enough for the 25 to 35 year old who is thinking about leaving.
But for those who do stay, job opportunities could open up that aren't here now.
The coming decades will likely bring a tremendous growth in senior citizens.
They may be healthier than seniors in the past, but many will likely need some kind of health care and that could create job growth.
Dr. Ross Gittell of the University of New Hampshire's Whittemore School says older workers can create new ventures.
...an older worker, leaving their long time employer and starting their own business and being successful and growing in employment size. also, older higher skilled individuals in the state tend to have savings, and they might draw upon those savings to invest in other nh companies.....
If Gittell's scenario proves true, New Hampshire companies could have a lot of investors.
Because as those aged 35 to 55 are expected to decrease in number, those aged 56 to 85 are expected to increase over 140 percent.
