Bass-Hodes Race Closer Than Two Years Ago

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• NHPR Election 2006 Coverage

Two years ago, Democrat Paul Hodes lost Congressional district two to incumbent Charles Bass by twenty points.
Back then, Hodes hit the airwaves with humorous political advertisements, and hit the streets campaigning.
But with no name recognition, and no political track record, he had little hope of ousting an incumbent.
But this election season, Democrat Paul Hodes believes he has a different opportunity.
1377 :26 if anything the country and voters in New Hampshire now see clearly that we’re going in the wrong direction in Iraq, that we need new priorities and a new direction at home, and people are ready for a change.

Iraq is playing a pivotal role in this race.
Hodes wants to tap voter disenchantment with the war, and has unveiled an eight part plan to withdraw US troops.
“What we need to do is first admit that there is not going to be our military solution in Iraq, we bring home the national guard and reserves and change the mission of our troops there and focus much more on training and reconstruction then on the combat role, and we turn Iraq over to the Iraqis in a relatively short period of time.”

Hodes suggests that turning the country over to the Iraqis would take about a year.
Bass, on the other hand, agrees with President Bush on Iraq.
He attacked Hodes plan as a retreat that would prove disastrous.
2:02 what I don’t support is plucking the national guard out of Iraq arbitrarily then that would put the existing military forces in grave danger, I don’t support setting a one year time table because its just designed to be broken.

Bass says the military is turning over control to the Iraqis at the rate of a battalion a month and he sees that as moving toward an eventual withdrawal.
He says the Hodes plan would spark only more terrorism.
2:27 I do support a reduction in US involvement and eventual withdrawal but I want that to occur in such a fashion that we don’t leave Iraq in the hands of Al Qaeda, because putting 20 to 30 percent of the world’s oil supply in control of a terrorist group is a recipe for disaster for western Europe and the US.

But an early October UNH poll shows the majority of New Hampshire residents think the country is on the wrong track and disapprove of the way President Bush is handling the war in Iraq.
St. Anselm College political science professor Dante Scala says if Hodes can capitalize on that anti-administration or anti-republican sentiment, he has a better chance at the polls.
:26 I think his campaign has more of an edge to it in terms of latching on to an issue that might hurt Charlie Bass in a way that previous attacks on the incumbent for being in the republican mainstream haven’t worked.// 1:00 if voters are going in deciding they are going to vote against the republican party or vote against President Bush, then Charlie Bass is in a lot of trouble.

1360 Paul Hodes, I’m running for Congress, hi Paul…

At this year’s Pumpkin Festival in Milford, Hodes hit the streets hoping District 2 voters have gotten that exact message.
1362: 15 you both voting for me, yeah I am darn right, Is that a switch for you? No, it is for me, I don’t like Bass, time to get him out of there, been there too long I agree with you.

Milford Resident Charles Fairchild voted for Bass in the last election.
This year, the independent says he won’t.
1:34 I want a change I don’t like Bass, I think he’s too close to Bush, I don’t think we should be in Iraq, time to get out of there

A recently-transplanted Amherst resident, who had never even heard of Paul Hodes, practically promised his vote as well.
1369 I’m the challenger . . . so you’re not currently in office? No. Well our philosophy is to vote for anyone not currently in office…looks like I just earned two more votes.

While Congressional District 2 polls show this race much closer than two years ago, Hodes still faces an uphill battle.
A September UNH poll showed even among Democrats, only six of ten knew Hodes.
Political science professor Dante Scala says his name recognition numbers in that poll were worse than previous Democratic candidates who have run against Bass.

1:03 Hodes has been running for two years now and he’s still not as well known as Katrina Swett or Dick Swett for that matter, the Congressman that held that position before Bass beat him several years ago. I think that’s part of the problem for Hodes.

But Scala says that poll also showed a large percentage of undecided voters, which he says is better for the challenger…. particularly since only 46-percent of voters say they support Bass.
1409 (Hi darling…hello Mary.. how are you…Congressman always good to see you ….looking good, you’ll win by ten anyway)

After six terms in office, Bass rarely has to introduce himself.

But while Bass hobnobs with Republican supporters at this political fundraiser, he’s quick to say how he’s split with the Republican Party on several house votes.
1402 (I’ve always run as an independent voice for New Hampshire)
He points to his votes against drilling in Alaska for oil, being a prime sponsor of the vetoed stem cell research bill, and opposing a federal constitutional amendment that defined marriage between a man and woman.
:38 (I’m an old hand at dealing with a weak view of Republicans on the part of NH people, NH people know me, they know that I’m different from a lock step democrat like my opponent is, or a lock step Republican like some others are in the country that are really threatened.)

Distancing himself from Republicans and the administration is important in a moderate congressional district.
While the district hasn’t had a Democrat in office since 1994, voters there supported Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry in the last election.
But Dante Scala believes Hodes will get elected only if it starts to look like the reverse version of 1994, when Democrats lost a lot of seats.
“A Hodes victory will only come with a significant democratic wave nationwide, the type of election where Democrats will pick up not just 15 seats in the house of representatives, but 30 seats 35 seats, there has to be a national push in favor of Democrats.”

And most political analysts say unless Republicans don’t show up to the polls, its highly unlikely Democrats can win that many seats.
For NHPR news, I’m Amy Quinton.