Several counties in New Hampshire are following what seems to be a national trend.
They're reporting increases in real estate foreclosures in early 2006.
That pattern is causing some economists to worry that bigger and more exotic mortgages may be the cause.
But a new report gives pause to the fears that a real estate crash could be just around the corner.
New Hampshire Public Radio's David Darman has more.
Real estate foreclosures haven't been a problem in New Hampshire since the early 1990s.
Leo Lessard says he remembers those days well.
That's when he first took over the job of Registrar of Deeds in Strafford County.
He says he sees a trend developing now that reminds him of that time.
last year we had 40 foreclosures. and what disturbed me is this year, the first two months of this year, we've seen 19. so we almost had half the number of foreclosures in the first two months of this year than we had all of last year.
Other counties in Southern New Hampshire are also seeing the same kind of increases.
Registrars say some of that is due to hard luck.
Someone in the house may have lost a job.
In other cases, rising interest rates have hurt other property owners, because they signed up for adjustable rate mortgages.
There have been 10 foreclosures in Merrimack County in the first two months of 2006.
Kathi Guay says that's several more than there were in the same period last year.
She's Merrimack's Register of Deeds.
But Guay says she's unconcerned about the up tick in the number of foreclosures.
She compares it to a time she remembers when real trouble was brewing.
you know to get up to where we were in 1991 with 607 foreclosures, i mean, that's something to worry about. but we haven't seen that. you know, from nineteen ninety..five, its been decreasing, significantly. so, 56 last year. in comparison to what we saw in the early 90's, that's nothing.
A recent report issued by the Mortgage Bankers Association in Washington, D.C. supports Guay's conclusion that there's nothing alarming in the latest foreclosure numbers.
The National Delinquency Survey analyzed more than 41 million mortgages outstanding across the country.
Mike Fratantoni, Senior Economist of the Mortgage Association, says the report found New Hampshire to be better off than the rest of the nation.
in the 4th quarter of 05, the total past due rate, so, at any level of delinquency, was 3.59 percent for nh, compared to 4.7 percent for the country as a whole. and a similar relationship in terms of foreclosure rates. the foreclosure inventory for the country as a whole was 0.99 percent, and it was 0.43 percent for new hampshire.
New Hampshire's delinquency and foreclosure rates are also among the lowest in New England.
But they have inched up a bit since the end of 2004.
Federal data indicates house prices in the state have increased about ten percent since then, and that could be adding to the foreclosure increases.
So could higher interest rates and sharply higher energy prices.
But Mike Fratantoni says he doesn't think those facts would cause a huge increase in foreclosures, even among homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages.
For one thing, he says 85 percent of homeowners in New Hampshire have traditional mortgages or own their houses outright.
And he says many people with adjustable rate mortgages find a way to cope with higher rates.
looking back historically, what we see is that a lot of times at that rate reset, people refinance. so, we actually are expecting something of an increase for our members as we move in to the next couple of years, where, as you're indicating, we're expecting a lot of hybrid arms and other projects to hit their first reset.
Adjustable rate mortgages could be heading even higher, and soon.
The Federal Reserve Board has raised the federal fund rate a quarter of a percent.
If Fratantoni is correct, that could soon send some holders of adjustable rate mortgages to the bank to refinance their loans.
If the Mortgage Association predictions are off, however, more families with these mortgages may find their houses suddenly unaffordable.
