What would happen if the full Democratic National Committee endorses a proposal to move New Hampshire down on the presidential primary calendar?
Last week, a commission within the DNC proposed just that.
Of course, New Hampshire law requires the Secretary of State to schedule the primary a week before any similar event.
So what could happen when state law clashes with the Democratic Party?
New Hampshire Public Radio's Dan Gorenstein reports.
This isn't the first time someone has proposed changing the primary calendar.
Back in 1975, New England States unsuccessfully tried to establish a regional primary.
In 1996, the state of Delaware held a contest on the heels of New Hampshire's...no candidate bothered to show up.
Now, the Commission on the Presidential Nomination Timing and Scheduling has offered its plan to move one or two caucuses before New Hampshire's primary.
And if the Democratic National Committee, or the DNC, approves the proposal, New Hampshire law will come in direct conflict with the Democratic party.
State Party Chair Kathy Sullivan says she isn't sure what penalty New Hampshire Democrats would have to pay for blowing off the DNC.
3:01 I don't know if the DNC would come into NH and slap my hand, or something like that. Hopefully it will not come to that.
Sullivan says right now, the DNC pays for two field state field workers and it theoretically could pull those funds.
But after thinking about it for a second...she says she doubts the party would go so far as to limit the ability of Democrats to elect other Democrats.
2:40 I would be surprised if the DNC did anything else. If there is a penalty for some action, I think the penalty should be directly related to the action...so if you break the rules for the convention then it makes sense to penalize the number of delegates you have for the convention.
Sullivan estimates New Hampshire sent about 27 delegates to the party's 2004 convention in Boston.
If the DNC did refuse to seat the state's delegates as punishment, presidential candidates would have to weigh whether it's worth competing in a state that wouldn't bring votes.
Thomas Mann, a government studies fellow at the liberal Brookings Institution doesn't think that sanction would deter any serious candidates.
2:53 the odds are in the short-term, the presidential candidates would continue to participate b/c out of fear if they didn't others would and NH would retain the advantage of garnering the lion's share of media attention.
But Mann believes if New Hampshire plays its trump card- using state law as cover to ignore the DNC calendar- it risks antagonizing an already delicate situation.
He says Democrats outside the state are growing impatient with New Hampshire and Iowa's dominance over presidential primaries.
What adds fuel to the fire, says Mann, is the whiff of a sense of entitlement coming from New Hampshire Democrats.
TAPE: I cannot stress how unwise it would be to undermine New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation status, nor how strongly New Hampshire Democrats will fight against the Commission's recommendations.
That's former state party chair Joe Keefe reading from a strongly worded letter he sent to the DNC Commission.
Keefe's sentiment, says Mann, is not helping New Hampshire's case.
5:38 ...when it's state party chairs and representatives say there can't be any discussion or negotiation, our place is our place and we will never give it up. That is the kind of attitude that is very annoying to people.
Los Angeles Times political reporter Ron Brownstein has covered presidential primaries for 20 years.
He says he guarantees if the state did take steps to leap frog other races, there would be efforts to punish the state.
5:00 I could imagine a scenario under the worst case....if NH unequivocally thumbs its nose at Democrats elsewhere, there is a backlash strong enough the party looks for ways to deligitimize the primary in 2012. I could imagine that. I could imagine there would be pressure on candidates not to participate from Democrats elsewhere.
And Brownstein says he doesn't understand why Granite Staters are so upset by the DNC Commission's new proposal.
8:28 the thing I think people in NH are missing is that all roads still lead back to NH. If you had three caucuses that produced 2-3 different winners before NH, NH is once again in the catbird's seat.
Republican political consultant Dave Carney predicts if New Hampshire loses its traditional position- it's four years away from becoming as politically relevant as North Dakota.
He believes Democratic front runners would use the fight over the calendar as an excuse not to compete in New Hampshire.
And his argument goes like this: if the front runners aren't here, the press isn't here.
And if the press isn't here....
:35 ... then in the next cycle, the national press corp. would be less likely to cover it. and if they aren't going to cover the NH primary then candidates aren't going to spend time here to campaign b/c that's why they come here, to get their message out. And therefore by 2012 it would be a non-event.
While the argument simmers, both New Hampshire and the DNC are jockeying for leverage with the prospective candidates.
The New Hampshire Secretary of State has said he won't schedule the primary until the Fall of 2007.
But any serious candidate will have been campaigning in the state for at least six months before New Hampshire will break with the DNC calendar.
Well aware of the state's strategy, the DNC Commission last weekend supported a non-binding rule that all candidates must support the primary calendar.
State Democrats see that as just a first effort to lean on candidates to boycott New Hampshire.
Northeastern Political Science Professor William Mayer says in that fight his money is on New Hampshire.
16:07 ...It really is a who is going to blink first kind of game. And NH just cares so much more than any other state and has so many activists who expect the benefits and attention, and it's likely in that type of game, NH is going ot win.
If history is any guide, Mayer may be right.
20 years ago the DNC challenged the state's primary and threatened not to seat the state's delegates.
The DNC blinked.
For NHPR News, I'm DG.
