Ted Jastrzembski's blog

Maybe the result wasn't so much any meltdown of the Dean movement, as it was Kerry taking skillfull advantage of a crack in the attention sequence many Dean leaners had locked into. Kerry got a second look after a lackluster Fall start, and voters liked what they saw as they got to spend more time around him in Iowa and NH. In the end it comes down to Democrat and independent desperation to move out of the conservative, ultraright, greedy, arrogant funk the country is in politically. That means "Electability" in November will continue to be the name of the game.

What a riot. Candidates and voters buzzing around like bettors a few minutes before the Kentucky Derby. Four young guys, not from around here by the way they dressed, were carrying one giant Dean sign and a bunch of just big Dean signs to a large, boistrous, mostly Dean rally on the Dartmouth Green, outside the site of the conference on women's issues in Hanover, Sunday. I have to agree with one elderly woman who commented on NHPR, that the Dean movement has brought many young people into the political process, and that it would be a shame to lose that. She was having a very tough time deciding, as are a lot of people, especially a good chunk of the former Dean leaners.

What would this primary season do without Howard Dean? Could be pretty boring. Imagine John Kerry as your headliner. He may make a terrific president but when it comes to stirring up a crowd, and cranking up the public interest level in a democratic exercise in our little State--he ain't no Dr. Dean. Just as he was passionate in exhorting his troops in Iowa, he's passionate about the damage control process--Diane Sawyer, David Letterman, the last big debate What a day...you've got to admire his heart.

Kerry has momentum and the headlines but the real story now might be Edwards. His more positive, less combative message is setting him apart from the others. What I'm hearing is that his boyish earnestness, with a touch of Carolina drawl, is working for both women and men who are still trying to make up their minds. One woman I spoke with who offered Edwards up as her most likely choice, said there was just something about him she believed, trusted, and liked. "Charmed" might have been the word she wanted to use, but of course she didn't. Many of us buy into the common wisdom that Edwards is in fact running for the VP slot, which also sets him up nicely for '08.

Dean's Iowa Storm came rolling back into New Hampshire as just a weakened low front. We were joking that he probably wished he had pulled a Lieberman and stayed in NH.
So what are some of the Dean leaners in Dean country saying? "Electability" is on everyone's mind. Several of the true leaners are now headed elsewhere--spooked by a combination of the perception of a large well-funded organization unable to deliver votes when it counted and a candidate who is not as well disciplined on the stump.

The people in my circle have been climbing fences lately. Even those I would have put down in a "strong supporter" column in heavy black ink, have hopped up on to that fence? I've been asking why? Many people engaged in this primary have overwhelming objective: to replace Bush. And with the economy improving somewhat, and the polls being published showing broad support for Bush in Iraq, voters are vulnerable to campaign rhetoric questioning whether a candidate has the stuff for a good match. Dr. Dean, having been the acknowledged front runner up until last week, has had the fusilades from most of the other campaigns, directed at him. We have five campaigns doing everything they can to call Dean's November viability into question. And because it is the biggest concern about any of the candidates, the constant harping from so many fronts has taken its toll, moving Dean leaners up on to the fence, and mobilizing voters concerned about Dean's November viability into action in another direction.

Thought it was a pretty good day for the Dean swarm, or the "Iowa Storm" as the 3500 Iowa Dean volunteers are called, what with the announced endorsement of C.M. Braun. My Dean leaners are feeling a bit nervous though about some of the latest polling number which are now showing a somewhat hotter race, depending on the poll. There is talk that the relentless sniping at Dean from virtually all the contenders, save Edwards, is beginning to take a toll, particularly on a press corp that's hungry for drama.

The spouse factor--its real. Much of what is driving voters in this democratic primary is the desire to put up a candidate who has a solid chance at beating Bush. That's why the recent NY Times article on the other Dr. Dean, has me concerned. West Wing comparisons aside, Mrs. Dean's choice to pretty much stay out of Howard's campaign kitchen, probably adds an element of risk to a matchup with George and Laura.

In collaring a few "undecideds" for their leanings at this point in the race they are telling me they are still pretty much undecided. The problem they say is that they want a composite candidate, that no one candidate has grabbed them to the extent that it pushes the others to the side. And surprising to me that the indecision isn't based so much on candidate positions on issues, but rather on style and background--and can they beat GWB. One composite I heard was Clark (international/military), Dean (fire and intensity), and Edwards (articulate and smooth). But I think this one is leaning toward Edwards.

Opinions drifting my way prompted by the recent televised Iowa debates: "Anyone of them is better than Bush". Dean seemed the least relaxed probably because everyone is going after him. Wild Man Kucinich might have some added appeal to women voters--not because of his vegan diet but because he wants to bring the troops home right away. Best question was Dean's getting a show of hands on solidarity behind the Democratic candidate--whoever it is. Lieberman comes across as shrill and somewhat disingenuous using the Iowa stage, given he has dropped out of that contest. Kerry comes across as very presidential--but he is just so dour.