Eric Woolson's blog

Take a bow, Iowa and New Hampshire Democrats. And, for that matter, all you other Democrats and independents from around the country who journeyed to the two "first-in-the-nation" states to work for their chosen candidates.

Maybe we don't agree on many issues -- and you don't agree among yourselves about a favorite candidate yet -- but we all recognize the value of participating in the political process. And, for that, I salute you.

Howard Dean's Caucus Night rant is still the talk of the town, make that, the talk of the state here in Iowa.

Lucky for him that he displayed that behavior after Iowa Democrats made their choice. Dean would have ended up in the single digits with Dennis Kuncinich, instead of in third place with 18 percent, if his outburst had occurred before the Democrats gathered in schools, libraries, churches, city halls and home to express their candidate preferences.

It's possible that the Nagle Axiom was turned on its head by Sen. John Kerry's big victory in tonight's Iowa presidential precinct caucuses. Then again, it just might have been reinforced by the events that unfolded at nearly 2,000 gatherings across this state.
The political law, coined by then-Iowa Democratic Party Chairman David Nagle was simple. The formula to victory in the first-in-the-nation caucuses was to �organize, organize, organize and get hot at the end.

Iowa's radio and television stations are raking in the final fistfuls of dollars from Democratic presidential candidates as the campaigns implore Iowans to support them at tonight's precinct caucuses. The airwaves are still dominated with Howard Dean's face and voice, Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack's endorsement of Sen. John Kerry and images of Sen. John Edwards and Rep. Dick Gephardt.

We'd had the coldest day of the new year and, if memory serves, the whole winter.

The Dean campaign is driving a story today about a supposed gaffe by Sen. John Kerry eight years ago. The terrible, awful, horrible, vicious, cruel, mean thing that Kerry said was that we ought to eliminate the U.S. Department of Agriculture or at least reduce it to three-fourths of its size.

Dean's people and members of the media who don't understand Iowa, including at least one local reporter imported for elsewhere, believe this is a bombshell revelation. This startling new information means Kerry hates farmers and is insensitive to Midwesterners in general and Iowans in particular and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

A new day brings new poll numbers in the Democratic presidential campaign here in Iowa. One poll has Howard Dean back on top -- barely. Dean is at 22 percent while Sen. John Kerry is at 21 percent. Rep. Dick Gephardt and Sen. John Edwards are both at 18 percent. All are still within the margin of error. Meanwhile, another new poll has Kerry broadening his lead. He's up to 24 percent in that poll, 5 percent ahead of Dean and Gephardt and 7 points ahead of Edwards. Both polls peg the undecided vote at 13 percent.

Iowa activists are still making up their minds and, apparently, still changing camps with just four days until the presidential precinct caucuses.

The Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Poll released last night had Howard Dean down to 24 percent with Dick Gephardt and John Kerry tied at 21 percent. The gap was within the margin of error. John Edwards was fourth at 15 percent.

Just to make things more interesting, notes Des Moines Register political columnist David Yepsen, pollster John Zogby says it's a three-way race for more than one reason. Kerry is "surging and he actually led the pack on Monday with 25 percent for the day. Dean had his worst single day with only 18 percent."

The mid-day news is Iowa is all about the new leader in the Democratic presidential race. Sen. John Kerry, with 21 percent, has inched to the front. Howard Dean has fallen 4 points to 20 percent, where he's tied with Rep. Dick Gephardt. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina has climbed a few points to 17 percent. They're all within the margin of error.

The question now: Is this poll reflecting the aforementioned voter volatility or are we seeing a real trend? Actually, Kerry is only up marginally, but Dean was at 29 percent just a few days ago. He's receiving a few endorsements today, notably for Carol Moseley Braun, but it's uncertain how much, if any difference that will make in Iowa. We'll know on Monday whether the polls are wrong, as is often the case, or if Dean has gone into a late-race freefall.

The news stories from Iowa are all about the Democratic presidential candidates swinging away at one another with the caucuses now just five days away.

Howard Dean's new ad is critical of Rep. Dick Gephardt and Sens. John Edwards and John Kerry, calling them "Washington politicians" and criticizing their votes for the war with Iraq. So much for "a new style of politics."

But, the chatter (whether accurate or not) this morning is that he's lined up the endorsement of former President Jimmy Carter and so he'll be in Georgia on the day before the caucuses rather than stumping in Iowa. If he really does have Carter's endorsement, it could just as easily wait until Tuesday or Wednesday so the candidate could stay in Iowa and make his final push for votes. But, that's an indication of confidence and a candidate running a national versus a one-state or regional campaign. In that respect, he does seem to be taking a page from the George W. Bush 2000 playbook with a goal of simply outlasting the others over the long haul.

I didn't believe it until today -- and I'm still not entirely convinced -- but Sen. John Edwards' presidential campaign in Iowa just might be surging. If so, he couldn't have picked a better time. You always want your campaign to peak on Election Day, and with the Jan. 19 caucuses just around the corner that could be exactly what's happening with Edwards.
The Des Moines Register endorsed his campaign on Sunday. He had a strong showing at the Iowa Brown and Black Forum on Sunday night. And people are talking about him.